676
FXUS64 KEWX 121918
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
218 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level shortwave trough
moving across southeast TX and generating isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms from our Coastal Plains to the Hill
Country. Convection will likely continue through the afternoon while
the upper shortwave moves away from the region. Tonight the
subtropical ridge will build over TX from the west. This will bring
an end to the unsettled pattern we`ve been experiencing over the
last few days. Dry weather will settle over the region for tonight
through Thursday night. Low temperatures tonight and thursday night
will be about the same as we`ve had during the early part of the
week. Highs Thursday will be warmer with less cloud cover and more
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Near to slightly above normal temperatures can be expected through
the first half of the long term period. Lower to middle 90s will be
most common over the Hill Country and I-35 corridor on Friday, with
highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s this weekend in the same
areas. Elsewhere, expect highs in the mid to upper 90s outside of
the Rio Grande Plains where it will continue to top out in the 100-
105 range through the weekend.

Our rain chances will remain cut off this weekend as weak ridging
sets up shop over the region, but it will be short-lived as it
migrates eastward and settles over the southeastern CONUS early next
week. This should open the door for slightly cooler afternoons, but
mornings will be downright muggy as surface moisture return increases
as an area of disturbed weather develops over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico. As of this writing, NHC gives it a low chance (30%) of
developing in the next 7 days, with the primary impact from the
system likely being heavy rainfall. The latest 8-14 U.S. Hazards
Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center places the eastern half of
our CWA within a Slight Risk for heavy precip, while the Coastal
Plains are within a Moderate Risk for heavy precip (greater than 4 in
10 chance of seeing heavy rains that could result in flooding) June
20-23. As far as medium range guidance goes, both the GFS and ECMWF
develop a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche late
this weekend into early next week, with the ECMWF on board with the
best chance of tropical development. The latest 12Z members are
bullish on this system developing into a weak tropical storm and
moving inland over northern Mexico. If this were to occur, we could
reap the benefits over the Rio Grande Plains and Coastal Plains in
terms of beneficial rainfall. For now, we will continue to monitor
trends, and as always, stick to reliable sources of information on
the tropics like the National Hurricane Center.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Ceilings have risen to VFR at all terminals and should remain that
way for this TAF period. There is a slight chance for showers or
thunderstorms this afternoon in the San Antonio and Austin areas, but
chances are too low to include in the TAFs. Convection could lower
conditions to MVFR briefly. Winds will be 10 kts or less at all
airports.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  95  75  96 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  95  73  94 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  96  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  92  73  94 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 103  81 103 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  92  72  94 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  94  72  95 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  92  74  94 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  95  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           77  96  76  98 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...05