715
FXUS64 KEWX 110540
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The complex of storms that moved across a majority of area early
this morning has allowed for slightly cooler temperatures this
afternoon with highs now expected to stay around the low 90s for all
areas expect along the Rio Grande where highs in the upper 90s are
more likely. Destabilization will be slower today due to the morning
storms, although early afternoon mesoanalysis does show greater
instability in the northeastern portion of the area that missed out
on precipitation earlier. Isolated thunderstorm development mid to
late afternoon will be possible mainly in central Texas or over the
coastal plains. The severe threat is low today with limited shear
available.

Storms may develop in west Texas this afternoon or evening and form
into another complex that moves towards South Central Texas late
tonight into Tuesday. Models vary on if this holds together as it
nears the southern Edwards Plateau or western Hill Country, but have
kept some low PoPs in these areas through Tuesday morning for this
possibility.

An upper low over the boarder of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle
today will progress east/southeast overnight through Tuesday which
will aid in storm development tomorrow. Global models are most
bullish in the afternoon over north central and central Texas,
although some isolated activity will be possible in our CWA during
the afternoon. If discrete cells do develop, a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible. Storms may also
form into a complex during the late afternoon/evening and dip into
portions of South Central Texas Tuesday night. This would lead to
more of a severe wind threat until a weakening trend begins sometime
around sunset. SPC has introduced a level 2 of 5 for this severe
potential across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country. Models favor the Hill Country and areas east for the best
storm and precipitation potential tomorrow, but this can certainly
change depending on any previous rounds of convection. For any
precipitation tomorrow, heavy rainfall will be possible given PWATS
of 1.75 to 2 inches. Temperatures remain in the 90s for a majority
of the area tomorrow, although locations along the Rio Grande may
reach to around 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A midlevel shortwave trough will move across east TX Wednesday and
there should still be enough lift to generate showers and
thunderstorms through the day. Convection will be limited to the
eastern half of the CWA and will decrease through the afternoon. The
shortwave will move off to the east Wednesday night, and the
subtropical ridge will strengthen. Dry weather will return and a
warming trend will begin. Models have trended a little cooler than
we`ve seen over the last few days. Highs will mostly be in the 90s
with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande region and southern
I-35 Corridor. Dewpoint temperatures will remain mainly steady in the
upper 60s to lower 70s keeping heat indices below advisory criteria.
Above normal temperatures will continue over next weekend. Monday a
midlevel trough will approach the TX coast from the Gulf and could
produce some showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR flying conditions will prevail overnight through Tuesday evening.
There are low PROBs for SHRA/TSRA with restrictions to CIGs and/or
VSBYs. Will leave mention out for now as there is now uncertainty on
locations and movement. However, expect mention in later forecasts
for at least one or more sites based on radar and/or model trends.
MVFR CIGs return later Tuesday night. Light, less than 10 KTs, winds
prevail, except strong wind gusts are possible in/near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  90  73  94 /  30  30   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  89  72  92 /  20  30   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  92  73  95 /  20  30   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  87  71  91 /  40  30   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 100  81 102 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  87  71  91 /  30  30   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             74  93  74  95 /  20  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  90  71  93 /  20  30   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  89  73  92 /  20  30   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  92  75  95 /  20  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  94  76  96 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...04