196
FXUS64 KEWX 102346
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
646 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

The complex of storms that moved across a majority of area early
this morning has allowed for slightly cooler temperatures this
afternoon with highs now expected to stay around the low 90s for all
areas expect along the Rio Grande where highs in the upper 90s are
more likely. Destabilization will be slower today due to the morning
storms, although early afternoon mesoanalysis does show greater
instability in the northeastern portion of the area that missed out
on precipitation earlier. Isolated thunderstorm development mid to
late afternoon will be possible mainly in central Texas or over the
coastal plains. The severe threat is low today with limited shear
available.

Storms may develop in west Texas this afternoon or evening and form
into another complex that moves towards South Central Texas late
tonight into Tuesday. Models vary on if this holds together as it
nears the southern Edwards Plateau or western Hill Country, but have
kept some low PoPs in these areas through Tuesday morning for this
possibility.

An upper low over the boarder of New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle
today will progress east/southeast overnight through Tuesday which
will aid in storm development tomorrow. Global models are most
bullish in the afternoon over north central and central Texas,
although some isolated activity will be possible in our CWA during
the afternoon. If discrete cells do develop, a few supercells
capable of producing large hail will be possible. Storms may also
form into a complex during the late afternoon/evening and dip into
portions of South Central Texas Tuesday night. This would lead to
more of a severe wind threat until a weakening trend begins sometime
around sunset. SPC has introduced a level 2 of 5 for this severe
potential across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country. Models favor the Hill Country and areas east for the best
storm and precipitation potential tomorrow, but this can certainly
change depending on any previous rounds of convection. For any
precipitation tomorrow, heavy rainfall will be possible given PWATS
of 1.75 to 2 inches. Temperatures remain in the 90s for a majority
of the area tomorrow, although locations along the Rio Grande may
reach to around 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

A midlevel shortwave trough will move across east TX Wednesday and
there should still be enough lift to generate showers and
thunderstorms through the day. Convection will be limited to the
eastern half of the CWA and will decrease through the afternoon. The
shortwave will move off to the east Wednesday night, and the
subtropical ridge will strengthen. Dry weather will return and a
warming trend will begin. Models have trended a little cooler than
we`ve seen over the last few days. Highs will mostly be in the 90s
with triple digits confined to the Rio Grande region and southern
I-35 Corridor. Dewpoint temperatures will remain mainly steady in the
upper 60s to lower 70s keeping heat indices below advisory criteria.
Above normal temperatures will continue over next weekend. Monday a
midlevel trough will approach the TX coast from the Gulf and could
produce some showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions should prevail for the majority of the 00z TAF cycle
however convection will keep confidence low. KDRT, KSAT, KSSF should
miss out on convection within the first 3 hours while KAUS has
convection ongoing or developing in the vicinity of the terminal.
While we should see a general decrease in convective activity with
the loss of daytime heating, outflow from earlier convection could
help to persist convection until closer to 02-03z for AUS. There is a
question if this convection will reach KSAT so will hold off on
mentioning in prevailing. Should then see lull in any convective
action between 03z and 10z with VFR conditions prevailing.

Next potential impact to the terminals comes in the form of a line of
storm moving from the Concho Valley across the Hill Country and into
the I-35 corridor after 10z. Think this line should stay east enough
to miss KDRT but will monitor trends for possible inclusion in later
TAF issuances. For KSAT, KSSF, and KAUS this line of storms is
expected to impact the terminals between 10z and 14z. Models are vary
a bit on when conditions will clear the terminals so there is
potential for the impacts to linger beyond 14z. An additional chance
for convection is possible beyond 00z Wednesday, but will leave
mention out for this issuance as confidence on timing and impacts are
low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              73  93  74  90 /  20  20  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  92  73  89 /  20  20  20  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  96  74  92 /  10  10  20  30
Burnet Muni Airport            72  89  72  87 /  20  30  40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 101  80 100 /  20  10  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        71  91  72  87 /  20  20  30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             74  96  74  93 /  10  10  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  93  73  90 /  10  10  20  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  91  74  89 /  10  20  20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  95  76  92 /  10  10  20  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  76  94 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...05
Aviation...36