528
FXUS64 KEWX 090549
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1249 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Patchy areas of low clouds this morning have broken up with mostly
sunny skies seen across South Central Texas this afternoon. Triple
digit high temperatures are expected in the far western and
southwestern portions of the area with highs in the mid to upper 90s
elsewhere. Dewpoints will mainly be in the 60s this afternoon,
although a few locations in the coastal plains may only drop into
the lower 70s. These temperatures and lower dewpoints will keep us
out of Heat Advisory criteria today.

Upper level high pressure remains over the northern Gulf tonight
bringing continued southeasterly flow to the area. Models depict an
increase in low level moisture during the overnight period with low
clouds expected to develop in the early morning hours on Sunday,
mainly over the eastern two thirds of the area. Cloud cover looks to
be short-lived, breaking up sometime in the mid to late morning.
Highs will be similar to those of today in the 90s with triple
digits in the west. Dewpoints will be slightly higher tomorrow which
may bring heat indices near Heat Advisory levels especially along
the Rio Grande, possibly into the Rio Grande Plains.

Some low precipitation chances (around 20 percent or less) are seen
as early as Sunday evening over the southern Edwards Plateau as a
weak disturbance moves into the area from the west. Scattered storms
may develop north of the area and move towards South Central Texas
during this period, although there is still much uncertainty in
exact details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A midlevel shortwave trough will ride over the subtropical ridge
Monday and may provide enough lift to generate showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances will be over the Edwards Plateau and
western Hill Country with slight chances along the Rio Grande and
approaching the I-35 Corridor. The shortwave will move off to the
east overnight Monday/Tuesday and the subtropical ridge will
strengthen. Dry weather will return and a warming trend will begin.
Triple digit highs will spread across from west to east south of the
Hill Country reaching the western Coastal Plains by Thursday.
Dewpoint temperatures will remain mainly steady in the upper 60s to
lower 70s keeping heat indices below advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Winds over the next 24 hours should trend similarly in direction over
the diurnal period, but lighter overall. This means the low MVFR cigs
coming in could all stay below 2000 FT for most of the morning
cloudiness period with some periods of clearing and IFR cigs as well.
Will stick to the reduced MVFR heights for now. Model trends are
showing more instability possible coming south from the Hill Country
and potentially from the west out of Mexico this evening and
overnight. With most of the QPF signaled for the Hill Country, will
keep the convection potential out of the TAFs for this cycle. A few
evening mid level clouds were kept in for the evening as a hint.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  94  74  95 /  10  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  95  74  97 /  10  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  91  72  92 /  10  20  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           80  99  79 101 /  10  30  20   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  91  73  92 /  10  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             76  95  74  98 /  20  20  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  94  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  74  92 /  10  20  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  95  76  97 /  10  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           78  96  76  98 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...18