828
FXUS64 KEWX 081721
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Early Saturday morning the upper level pattern across the U.S. shows
an upper level ridge of high pressure centered of the NW Gulf...an
upper low over Baja and broad NW flow from the Northern Rockies to
the mid Atlantic. The upper ridge over the Gulf will dominate our
weather in the short term allowing for deeper onshore flow and the
return of higher moisture levels especially along the Rio Grande.

Still waiting to see if in fact some low clouds will form down to
our SE and move this general direction.  Despite this possibility
will keep with mostly sunny skies today because the moisture is
fairly shallow, PW values still fairly low, and low level winds will
be relatively strong...which should allow for good mixing. Out along
the Rio Grande we could have some high clouds come across from
Mountain storms. Models show dewpoints dropping into the mid to
upper 60s again this afternoon. So even with the temps forecast to
be in the mid to upper 90s, low 100s out west...we should stay below
Heat Advisory criteria.  We could see the S/SE winds gust over 20 kt
in many spots by mid afternoon which should help to alleviate some
of the heat issues.

After several days of cloud free mornings...the surge in moisture
will create a cloudy morning on Sunday. Temps will rebound quickly
and still approach 100 in many areas under partly cloudy to mostly
sunny skies. With the higher dewpoints expected we may get close to
Heat Advisories especially along the Rio Grande Sunday afternoon.
Max temps will once again be several degrees above normal. The good
news is that the upper ridge over the N. Gulf starts to weaken to
our east as the Baja low pressure area moves into the desert SW and
merges into some NW flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

An upper level low currently over the southern half of the Baja
peninsula will lift northward into the desert southwest through the
weekend. Some weak upper level disturbances associated with this low
as well as a 60-70kt subtropical jet will bring a low chance for some
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. As of now, it
appears rain chances will remain low and mainly favored over the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau, where models show an outflow
boundary/weak cold front may approach from the north. The GFS model
has trended much weaker with this boundary and subsequently trended
higher with the forecast highs on Monday. We will continue this trend
as well and side with the warmer guidance on Monday into Tuesday.
While we could see a weak easterly wind shift and some temporary
lowering of dewpoints, we prefer to keep temperatures near or above
normal behind the boundary.

Southeasterly winds in the lower-levels are likely to return to all
areas on Tuesday and we will quickly return to a hot and humid
pattern across south central Texas. We will keep a low chance for
some isolated late afternoon/early evening convection in the forecast
across the coastal plains, with a dry forecast elsewhere. The
remnants of the upper low mentioned above are expected to move across
the Texas Panhandle into north Texas Tuesday into Wednesday. While
some sort of convective complex will likely accompany this upper low,
rain chances continue to remain favored well to our north. We will
monitor for possible southward propagating outflow boundaries which
may help initiate some convection across north and central Texas late
Tuesday or Wednesday.

Late in the forecast period, the mid and upper level subtropical
ridge axis will strengthen to our west. Temperatures still appear to
remain at or above normal with the low-level thermal ridge amplifying
over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

VFR conditions will continue through this evening with mostly sunny
skies across South Central Texas this afternoon. Southeasterly wind
may be breezy at times with gusts around 20 knots possible at TAF
sites. MVFR ceilings return tonight around 08-09Z impacting most
areas except locations near the Rio Grande. Stratus is forecast to
lift mid to late morning returning VFR conditions back to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  96  75  94 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  96  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  98  75  96 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  94  74  91 /   0   0  10  20
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 104  81 100 /   0  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  94  73  92 /   0   0   0  20
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  76  98 /   0  10  10  20
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  96  74  94 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  93  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  98  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  77  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...09
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27