149
FXUS64 KEWX 070545 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Some low clouds have held on in the southwestern CWA with mostly
clear skies across the remainder of the area. Temperatures are in
the upper 80s and low 90s with highs today several degrees higher.
Dewpoints are slightly lower and with clouds hanging on in the
southwest, current thinking is still no need for a Heat Advisory
today. There are some thunderstorms well west of the Rio Grande, but
not expecting these to get anywhere close to the CWA. For tonight,
the slightly drier air will lead to lows in the lower 70s in the
east, but moisture and low clouds will lead to continued to upper
70s to near 82 degrees in the Rio Grande Counties.

Tomorrow will be dry with highs back in the middle 90s to 104
degrees out west. Dewpoints will stay below critical values and heat
indices will be less than advisory levels once again. Southeast
surface winds are pretty light today, but should be slightly higher
tomorrow. Tomorrow night skies should be mostly clear for all areas
with lows in the lower to middle 70s for most of the area. This
could finally end bring sub 80 degree temperatures to Del Rio.
Otherwise, no major concerns are expected during the short-term
period of the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

By Saturday we will start to see some slight pattern shifts to where
the upper level ridge currently centered over the NM/TX area will
move SE across TX and into the northern gulf by late in the weekend.
This will setup some storm activity to likely form over OK and N
Texas along a weak frontal boundary. This boundary is forecast to
stall to our north in North or Central Texas as depicted in the
models as well as on WPCs surface forecast maps. This time of year,
outflow boundaries can generate enough lift for storms and aid to
reinforce these early June weak cold fronts. So as long as this
feature is near the northern/western areas of the CWA on
Monday...will keep the slight chances of POP in the forecast during
the day on Monday.

By the middle of next week, the upper ridge will re-establish over
northern Mexico into the front range of the Rockies...setting up
some more NW flow across the Southern Plains.  While this might keep
N TX and OK active again with storms like the past few weeks...there
doesnt appear to be much in the way of rain triggers for us except
if we get lucky with some outflow boundaries. Rest of the forecast
will be zero pop and temps mainly in the 90s...low 100s along the Rio
Grande as the ridge axis shifts to more of a SW to NE origin over
the state, limiting our influence from any NW flow events.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are forecast for KAUS, KSAT and KSSF through the
forecast period. A light and variable and at times easterly wind flow
is forecast to dominate overnight through Friday morning. Low clouds
are forecast to develop overnight across the Rio Grande and affect
KDRT by day break through the middle of the morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are forecast to prevail at KDRT on Friday afternoon and
evening. Wind speeds pick up (8 to 12 knots and wind gusts up to 20
knots) especially across the Rio Grande mid to late afternoon into
the evening as a surface trough moves across west Texas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              98  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  73  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     99  73  99  74 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          104  79 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        96  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            100  71 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       99  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          101  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...17