809
FXUS64 KEWX 132332
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Above average temperatures and humid conditions will trend through
the short term period with ridging aloft and the modest southerly
winds. Mostly sunny skies prevail for most locations through the
afternoon but expect for increasing high clouds from early this
evening through Saturday with arriving moisture aloft off the
Eastern Pacific from Tropical Storm Ileana. The high clouds should
become most concentrated across our northern zones into and during
the day on Saturday before shifting southward across more of our
region through Saturday night as some upper level energy could
approach as it strips off from the dissipating Ileana or it`s
already possible dissipated surface low. This could yield to some
virga along with perhaps a stray light rain shower near the Rio
Grande from Saturday night into early Sunday. Otherwise, the
forecast remains rain free through the short term.

As stated in the previous forecast discussion, the potential does
remain for a few climate locations on reaching or breaking daily
record high temperatures in the short term period. Refer to the
climate section below for details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

At the start of next week, temperatures will remain above normal
across all of south central Texas. Near record heat is possible on
Sunday and Monday for our climate sites along the Interstate 35
corridor. Records out west at Del Rio are a little higher and appear
safe at this time. Look for highs to range from the lower 90s to near
100 degrees on Sunday and Monday, along with overnight lows mostly in
the 70s.

The medium range models do show some of the remnant mid and upper
level lift and moisture from Tropical Storm Ileana moving into
portions of south Texas on Sunday into Monday. The operational GFS
continues to show "higher" QPF vs. the ECMWF and Canadian models.
While a few of the GFS ensemble members continue to favor some higher
rainfall totals near the Rio Grande plains, most of the members are
showing little to no precipitation. We will continue the trend of the
inherited forecast and keep rain chances limited to 20-30% at this
time.

For Tuesday through Friday, the subtropical ridge axis remains intact
across northern Mexico into northern Texas. This will lead to a
continuation of above normal temperatures and dry weather for most of
south central Texas. We did keep a low chance for some afternoon and
early evening convection in the coastal plains, but coverage of
showers and storms and precipitation amounts will remain lows.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Diurnal persistence should continue under high pressure, switching
wind directions from S/SW to SE/ESE depending on the time of day.
Wind speeds should be mostly below 12knots, but possibly near 12
knots at DRT in the afternoon. A few low clouds could make an MVFR
cig layer around SAT/SSF, but in general the winds are too light to
collect a significant area of cloudiness. Later tonight high clouds
will be on the increase and that could also disrupt the formation of
low CIGs.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Record High Temperatures

                      Sep 13      Sep 14       Sep 15     Sep 16

Austin Bergstrom....102 (2011)..101 (2011)...99 (2005)...99 (2019)
Austin Camp Mabry...105 (2011)..103 (2011)...99 (1953)..101 (2019)
Del Rio.............101 (2017)..106 (2017)..102 (1912)..101 (1997)
San Antonio.........100 (2011)...99 (2011)...98 (1988)...99 (1954)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  99  76 100 /   0   0   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  99  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            73  97  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           79 100  79  98 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75  98  74  96 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  97  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  98  76  97 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  76  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...18
Long-Term...76
Aviation...18