Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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297 FXUS63 KFGF 250312 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1012 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Winds in southeastern North Dakota have picked up into the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph, issued a wind advisory for Barnes, Ransom, Sargent, through 7 PM. - Some snow has been falling in our far northwestern counties. While clouds tonight will not clear to bring classic frost development, temperatures will drop into the low to mid 30s. - Additional scattered showers into the holiday weekend, but widespread rain has already impacted area rivers. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Upper low continues to move slowly off to the north and east this evening, with persistent light precipitation stretched along a trailing axis of Fgen. The radar presentation is that of a weak deformation zone, with light to moderate snow along the International Border, and light rain further south. Winds have diminished slightly, with most gusts now below 40 mph. Temperatures have cooled significantly with near freezing at the International Border and middle 40s in the southern Red River Valley. UPDATE Issued at 655 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Extended the wind advisory through 10pm and added several counties as winds continue to gust upwards of 45mph. Other forecast elements remain on track this evening as colder air fills into the region. Light snow is being reported at several sites in the Devils lake basin, including Cando and Langdon. Temperatures in the Devils Lake basin are in the low to middle 30s, with 40s elsewhere in the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 336 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 Upper low continues to rotate over the forecast area and has produced some convection. A few cold core upper low funnels and one confirmed tornado have been confirmed as of this writing, but should see instability decrease rapidly after 22Z and CAMs all have cells diminishing before sunset. Winds will also decrease around 00Z as the pressure gradient relaxes and the core of pressure rises and cold air advection moves off to the east. Wind advisory for our far southwestern counties should be coming down by this evening. The weakening showers will join the rain that has been soaking the northern counties this afternoon, with some snow flakes continuing to mix in across far northwestern portions of the CWA. At this point think travel impacts will be minimal for winter, but plenty of cold temperatures to work with as cold air advection continues. Even with not much clearing until close to morning, readings in the upper Devils Lake Basin are already in the mid 30s. Expect the 30s to spread south and east into tonight, just a question of how far. Continued winds and clouds will not bring the classic frost formation on the ground, but temps will drop down into the 33 to 36 range across portions of northeastern ND into northwestern MN. Put out a frost advisory for late tonight into tomorrow morning. West then northwesterly sets up as the upper low exits off into Canada, but some weak shortwaves could bring some periodic shower and thunderstorm chances, particularly with decent ensemble agreement on a stronger shortwave Sunday night into Monday. Ridge building in for Wednesday/Thursday, then southwest flow and a more active pattern returns for Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024 IFR to MVFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites this evening. Scattered showers continue to bring visibility down occasionally into the 2-3SM range, with ceilings falling to just under 1500 feet. Outside of showers, MVFR conditions prevail, which should remain the case through much of the evening and into the early overnight period. Gusty winds will remain elevated through the rest of the evening before tapering off overnight. Heading into the late overnight hours and into Saturday morning, shower activity is expected to diminish, with remnant low ceilings through around sunrise. Slow improvement is expected through the remainder of the morning hours on Saturday, with VFR conditions expected to return to most sites around midday. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for NDZ006>008-014>016- 024-026>030-038-054. Flood Watch from late Sunday night through late Tuesday night for NDZ053. MN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT Saturday for MNZ001-004-005-007- 008-013>015. && $$ UPDATE...Lynch DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Lynch