094
FXUS64 KFWD 080439
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Skies will remain mostly clear for the rest of the night with
southerly winds around 10 mph and warm temperatures. Overnight
lows will only manage the mid 70s for most locations.

Mid level ridging will continue to prevail across the Southern
Plains on Saturday with mostly sunny skies expected and
temperatures again climbing into the mid and upper 90s. Southerly
winds will become breezy by afternoon thanks to modest mixing and
this should result in dewpoints falling into the low/mid 60s.
While it`ll be hot, heat index values should top out in the upper
90s to near 100, but breezy conditions will make it feel a bit
more tolerable.

The upper ridge will begin to shift eastward Saturday night into
Sunday which will result in slightly "cooler" conditions on Sunday
as forecast highs are expected to top out in the lower 90s. Weaker
winds and slightly higher dewpoints will make it feel a little
more humid. Farther to the north, stronger northwest flow aloft
and a passing shortwave through the Central Plains will result in
a weak cold front sliding southward through Oklahoma. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop along this boundary but should
remain well removed from North Texas.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 355 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/
/Next Week/

The ridging aloft responsible for our very warm and humid weekend
will shift into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, shaving a few
degrees off daytime highs. However, heat index values may still
flirt with the century mark. The pattern shift will also allow a
late-season cold front to invade the Southern Plains. A daytime-
heating-induced uptick in convection along the advancing boundary
will be well to our north during the afternoon hours, from the
Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma. Although it will steadily
diminish in intensity, the activity will eventually enter North
Texas Sunday evening, making additional progress during the
overnight hours Sunday night into early Monday morning.

The frontal boundary will lose its forward momentum, but the
arrival of a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Monday
should assist its southern progress. Aided by renewed convective
activity Monday afternoon, the front will finally sag through the
region, with backing surface winds. Once the shortwave passes to
our east, a period of northwest flow will ensue, with a mid-level
ridge axis through New Mexico and Chihuahua. Even with minimal
cloud cover, this will assure below normal temperatures prevail
through midweek.

A cut-off low that will spend most of the week tormenting Southern
California will finally move inland late in the week. This will
tilt the ridge axis into the Lone Star State, resulting in the
return of afternoon temperatures in the 90s. With persistent Gulf
moisture remaining in place, triple-digit heat index values will
be in place by next weekend.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds becoming
breezy by afternoon. No significant aviation concerns are expected
through Saturday night.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  95  74  93  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
Waco                74  93  73  91  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Paris               74  92  71  91  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Denton              79  95  72  93  71 /   0   0   0   0  30
McKinney            77  95  72  92  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dallas              77  95  74  94  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
Terrell             75  92  71  91  71 /   0   0   0   0  20
Corsicana           73  94  73  92  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Temple              73  94  72  92  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       73  97  72  94  71 /   0   0   0   0  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$