Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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426 FXUS64 KFWD 072055 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 355 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1256 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/ /Through Saturday/ Seasonable heat and humidity is in store heading into the weekend as upper ridging builds overhead. Convective activity on the outer periphery of the ridge will stay well removed from the forecast area through the next 36 hours with strong subsidence overhead locally. Accordingly, ongoing high-based convection in the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma will not be able to survive while encroaching on western North Texas. Otherwise, despite high temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s both today and tomorrow, heat index values will be tempered by decent mixing out of boundary layer moisture with dewpoints falling into the mid and upper 60s for most locations during peak heating. This will yield heat index values of roughly 98-105, so those planning to spend time outdoors this weekend should still plan on taking steps to escape the heat. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Next Week/ The ridging aloft responsible for our very warm and humid weekend will shift into the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, shaving a few degrees off daytime highs. However, heat index values may still flirt with the century mark. The pattern shift will also allow a late-season cold front to invade the Southern Plains. A daytime- heating-induced uptick in convection along the advancing boundary will be well to our north during the afternoon hours, from the Texas Panhandle through Oklahoma. Although it will steadily diminish in intensity, the activity will eventually enter North Texas Sunday evening, making additional progress during the overnight hours Sunday night into early Monday morning. The frontal boundary will lose its forward momentum, but the arrival of a shortwave trough into the Southern Plains on Monday should assist its southern progress. Aided by renewed convective activity Monday afternoon, the front will finally sag through the region, with backing surface winds. Once the shortwave passes to our east, a period of northwest flow will ensue, with a mid-level ridge axis through New Mexico and Chihuahua. Even with minimal cloud cover, this will assure below normal temperatures prevail through midweek. A cut-off low that will spend most of the week tormenting Southern California will finally move inland late in the week. This will tilt the ridge axis into the Lone Star State, resulting in the return of afternoon temperatures in the 90s. With persistent Gulf moisture remaining in place, triple-digit heat index values will be in place by next weekend. 25 && .AVIATION... /Issued 1256 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/ /18z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with southerly winds. While speeds today will remain near 10 kts, expect gustier conditions for Saturday with sustained winds of 15-20 kts and occasional daytime gusts exceeding 25 kts. Scattered cirrus will be the extent of cloud cover during the next 30 hours. -Stalley && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 96 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 20 Waco 74 94 73 91 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Paris 72 92 71 91 71 / 5 5 0 0 20 Denton 74 96 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 30 McKinney 74 95 72 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 20 Dallas 76 96 73 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 20 Terrell 73 94 71 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 75 94 73 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Temple 72 95 72 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 74 98 73 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$