Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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652 FXUS64 KFWD 071013 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 513 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Isolated showers have been able to form along a frontal boundary in Oklahoma and move southeast over the last hour. Have introduced 10% isolated showers in our northeastern counties this morning to account for their movement. However, a lack of moisture below the mid level cloud deck should keep most of the rain from reaching the ground. Otherwise, no major changes were made to the previous forecast and the discussion below remains valid. Prater Previous Discussion: /Today through Saturday Afternoon/ Expect a much anticipated quiet end to the week across North and Central Texas as upper level ridging builds in atop the Southern Plains. While a shortwave transiting around the periphery of the ridge provided enough large-scale lift along a stalled front across Oklahoma to produce a few storms this evening, the approaching subsident airmass has kept them from moving closer to our northwestern counties. As such, all of our 46 counties will remain dry to start the weekend. This afternoon will feature warm high temperatures in the 90s, but with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, heat index values will peak between ~96-102, just below Heat Advisory range. Meanwhile, the surface ridge will slide further east, tightening the surface pressure gradient and increasing winds to around 10-15 mph across the western half of the region. The slight uptick in winds will help to offset the summer heat somewhat, making for a relatively nice day. While a cut-off low near Baja Mexico swinging up towards the Desert Southwest will shift the upper ridge center a bit eastward on Saturday, North and Central Texas will still be under its influence. In the presence of rain-free and mostly sunny conditions, temperatures will be able to rise into the 90s once again. A continued tightened surface pressure gradient will promote increased wind speeds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph through the first half of the weekend. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 353 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024/ /Saturday Night through Thursday/ Mid level ridging will be shifting to the east by late Saturday allowing southerly flow to tap into some better moisture over the northwest Gulf. As it does, a weak shortwave will spread out of northern Baja California and into West Texas on Sunday. Meanwhile, a stronger disturbance will dig into the Midwest out of the Northern Plains and help send a cold front into North Texas by Sunday night. Strong instability will be in place across the region during the day Sunday but convection will likely initially develop well off to our north along the cold front across Oklahoma. These showers and storms will spread southward during the overnight hours, likely losing some of their intensity through the night. It`s a little uncertain whether or not the cold front will make it through North Texas, but the boundary should linger somewhere in the vicinity of the Red River through the early part of the week. With stronger ridging building back in across northwest Mexico into the Four Corners region, we`ll remain embedded within modest northwest flow through mid week and will hang on to at least low storm chances into Wednesday. Temperatures will be cooler Monday and Tuesday (low/mid 80s) with increased cloud cover and precipitation chances. Beyond that, ridging will build back into the Southern Plains and we`ll warm back into the low/mid 90s. Dunn && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Currently, VFR high-to-mid level clouds are moving south across the region, but pose no impacts. Wind speeds continue to be light, but overall southerly. An increase in speeds is expected later this morning and afternoon to around 10 kts with occasional gusts closer to 20 kts. Winds will stay southerly through the next 24-30 hours. A greater increase in wind speed to around 15 kts (with gusts to around 25 kts) is expected tomorrow afternoon. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 76 96 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 93 75 93 73 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 92 72 92 72 91 / 10 5 0 0 5 Denton 94 74 95 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 10 McKinney 93 74 94 72 91 / 5 0 0 0 5 Dallas 95 76 96 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 93 73 93 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 5 Corsicana 94 75 94 73 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 94 73 94 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 96 75 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$