Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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005 FXUS64 KFWD 070532 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1232 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Saturday Afternoon/ Expect a much anticipated quiet end to the week across North and Central Texas as upper level ridging builds in atop the Southern Plains. While a shortwave transiting around the periphery of the ridge provided enough large-scale lift along a stalled front across Oklahoma to produce a few storms this evening, the approaching subsident airmass has kept them from moving closer to our northwestern counties. As such, all of our 46 counties will remain dry to start the weekend. This afternoon will feature warm high temperatures in the 90s, but with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, heat index values will peak between ~96-102, just below Heat Advisory range. Meanwhile, the surface ridge will slide further east, tightening the surface pressure gradient and increasing winds to around 10-15 mph across the western half of the region. The slight uptick in winds will help to offset the summer heat somewhat, making for a relatively nice day. While a cut-off low near Baja Mexico swinging up towards the Desert Southwest will shift the upper ridge center a bit eastward on Saturday, North and Central Texas will still be under its influence. In the presence of rain-free and mostly sunny conditions, temperatures will be able to rise into the 90s once again. A continued tightened surface pressure gradient will promote increased wind speeds up to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph through the first half of the weekend. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 205 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/ /Saturday through Thursday/ The weekend weather will feature rain-free and warm conditions across North Central Texas, as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Daytime temperatures will rise well into the 90s areawide Saturday, which represents above normal conditions for early June. However, with slightly restrained humidity, heat indices at most locales should only top out in the upper 90s. The ridge will shift just a bit east on Sunday, inhibiting the highs from climbing much beyond the lower to middle 90s. However, slightly higher dewpoints should result in similar heat index vales to those seen Saturday. A pattern evolution will commence Sunday night as the upper ridge begins to flatten, and the first of multiple subtle shortwaves approaches the region from the northwest. The arrival of this weak forcing for ascent will create an opportunity for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms to our immediate northwest late Sunday night into Monday. Maintained low chance PoPs across our northwest counties Sunday night, spreading area wide on Monday. Substantial cloudiness, coupled with areas of rain and the arrival of a weak cold front, will help limit high temperatures Monday to the 80s. Apart from the likely presence of the weak boundary loitering across our southern zones, overall synoptic scale forcing will be a bit more nebulous on Tuesday. As a result, kept PoPs Tuesday in the slight chance/low chance range, with low PoPs persisting into Wednesday due to widely separated diurnal convection. Highs in the 80s will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, due to residual cloud cover and an absence of large scale subsidence. Unfortunately, an upper ridge will reassert itself across northern Mexico and Texas from Thursday into Friday, sending daytime highs back into the upper 90s by the end of the week. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR and SE winds will prevail through the next 24-30 hours. Wind speeds are currently around 5 kts or less, and will stay relatively light through morning. An increase in speeds to around 10 kts with occasional gusts closer to 20 kts are expected over this afternoon. High-mid level cloud cover is possible over today, but should pose no impacts. A greater increase in wind speeds to around 15 kts (gusts to 25 kts) is expected tomorrow afternoon, but will be covered in future TAF issuances. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 96 76 95 75 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 69 93 74 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 68 91 71 92 73 / 5 5 5 0 0 Denton 73 94 73 95 73 / 10 0 5 0 0 McKinney 71 93 73 94 73 / 5 5 5 0 0 Dallas 72 94 76 95 75 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 70 91 72 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 70 93 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 69 95 73 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 68 95 74 97 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$