Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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551 FXUS64 KFWD 061100 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Friday Afternoon/ While this morning usually would have been a good set up for radiational fog, a push of drier air moved south through North Texas over the last few hours. Behind this boundary, dewpoints dropped, creating greater dewpoint depressions and snuffing out really any chance at meaningful fog formation in North Texas. Currently, patchy fog can be seen creeping along river valleys across Central and East Texas on satellite, and this will continue so over the next several hours. METAR observations near these valleys have reported lowered visibilities, but these have been more isolated in nature across the CWA. If you do come across denser fog on your commute, make sure to drive safely. Overall, a dry and quiet forecast is in store for North and Central Texas to end out the week as upper level ridging builds in. However, a cold front will advance south through the Central Plains as its upper level support moves into New England. The front should make it into Oklahoma today. While subsidence from the aforementioned ridge should stunt much convective initiation, a subtle shortwave disturbance rounding the periphery of the ridge will allow for isolated storms chances to develop to our northwest this afternoon. Have retained low 20% or less PoPs for our northwestern counties this afternoon for the potential for a stray shower/storm. Otherwise, expect a warm afternoon with highs in the 90s region-wide. The front will stall before making it south of the Red River on Friday, and will eventually be ushered north as a warm front. Another impulse rounding the ridge will allow for the potential for rain/storms near the front. However, with the boundary expected to stall and return north all before it reaches our side of the Red River and a lack of appreciable moisture in the vicinity, chances for any rainfall in our area continue to dwindle. Have lowered chances on Friday to below 15% across our northern row of counties to account for this. We`ll continue to watch for any deviation or further southern intrusion of the front, which could influence rain chances. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024/ /This Weekend and Next Week/ Mid-level ridging will dominate the pattern this weekend, allowing for hot and mainly rain-free conditions to prevail. Saturday should be the warmest day with most of the area climbing to the mid 90s. Although a stiff southerly breeze will provide some relief from the heat, dew points in the low 70s will result in heat index values in the 100-105 range. A weakness in the ridge, digging shortwave trough, and a weak cold front moving into the area will open the door for a short- lived period of more active weather late this weekend into early next week. Northwest flow aloft should return by Sunday and open the door for additional overnight/early morning MCSs to move into the area, mainly Sunday and Monday nights. The ensemble mean guidance is indicating a resurgence of mid-level ridging over West Texas in the middle to late parts of next week. While most guidance keeps weak northwest flow over North Texas, the dominance of the high to our southwest should nudge the MCS activity further north with only a 10% chance of thunderstorm chances continuing beyond Tuesday morning. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Light and variable to completely calm winds continue at all TAF sites this morning, with patchy fog forming across portions of Central Texas. A slug of drier air that moved in overnight continues to move south into Central Texas. Lower dewpoints behind this boundary has kept any mist/fog from forming at the airports and have taken out any mention of BR with the 12Z TAF. Otherwise, winds will settle out of the ESE-SE later this morning, and eventually out of the S just after midnight on Friday. VFR will prevail through the rest of the period, making for nice flying conditions. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 73 95 76 96 / 0 5 0 0 0 Waco 93 69 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 92 69 90 71 91 / 5 5 10 0 0 Denton 93 69 93 75 94 / 0 10 5 0 0 McKinney 92 70 93 74 94 / 0 5 5 0 0 Dallas 96 73 95 76 96 / 0 5 0 0 0 Terrell 91 69 92 73 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 93 71 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 93 69 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 96 70 95 73 96 / 0 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$