576
FXUS64 KFWD 051900
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
200 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Afternoon/

This morning`s round of storms has now made it to the Gulf of
Mexico, leaving behind dry conditions throughout North and Central
Texas. The good news is that, for a change, we ARE NOT looking at
another round of storms tonight. Many locations across North and
Central Texas continue to experience flooding in low-water
crossings due to the multiple rounds of rain over the last few
weeks. Improvements are expected to continue today into tomorrow.

Temperatures today will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s as
mostly clear skies continue through the rest of the day. Tonight,
clear skies and light winds are expected, setting the stage for
fog development where rain occurred earlier today. Any fog that
develops will dissipate after sunrise tomorrow with clear skies
much of the day.

The main weather story tomorrow will be the return of the heat
throughout the region as temperatures climb into the mid to upper
90s. Given plenty of moisture in the air, heat index values will
approach the triple digit mark. Winds will be out of the south
generally between 5 to 15.

A front will stall across Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon and with
sufficient daytime heating, a few thunderstorms will be possible
in far western Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle. A few of these
storms may move southeast grazing our northwestern most counties
closer to sunset, however, the probability of this happening is
less than 20%. These storms are expected to be sub-severe given
fairly dry mid-levels and an elevated capping inversion.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 409 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024/
Update:

Not much change has been made to the previous long term forecast
aside from incorporating new long term NBM guidance, therefore the
discussion below remains valid. The biggest uncertainty as of
this issuance is the storm potential on Friday afternoon as a
front stalls near the Red River. There still remains a low chance
for precipitation, as some ensemble and cluster guidance shows
slightly wetter solutions during Friday afternoon. The lack of
upper level forcing for Friday atop the stalled front is keeping
exact coverage and intensity a bit ambiguous. With all this in
mind, have kept the previous forecast`s 15-20% PoPs across
portions of North Texas for now.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Wednesday Night and Beyond/

Mid-level high pressure will push overhead from the west Wednesday
night into Thursday, allowing for our first day without any rain
chances over our forecast area Thursday. With sunny skies region-
wide and rain-free conditions, expect afternoon highs to peak in
the mid- to upper 90s across much of North and Central Texas
Thursday afternoon.

Surface low pressure transiting east across Ontario and the Great
Lakes region will drag a weak cold front south across the Plains
toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Confidence is
highest in the frontal boundary stalling near or just north of the
Red River early Friday. High-resolution guidance over the next
few days will help increase our confidence in a more precise
placement of this boundary. Although mid-level ridging and a
subtle capping inversion will likely inhibit widespread convection
from developing during peak heating Friday afternoon, convergence
in the vicinity of the surface trough may offer enough lift to
get an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15-20% chance) going across
portions of North Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft
will limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of
producing small hail and gusty downburst winds remains possible.
If any storms develop, they will quickly diminish late Friday
evening with the loss of daytime heating.

An upper trough looks to dig south over the Northern Great Plains
by the weekend shunting the overhead ridge back to the south and
west. This will put portions of the Southern Plains back under
active northwest flow aloft. Periodic chances for MCS activity
will persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next
week, with the greatest chances for additional rainfall residing
north of the I-20 corridor into Oklahoma. Slightly above-average
temperatures in the low to mid-90s are expected over the weekend.

Long-range guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger cold
front will push into North Texas in the Sunday-Monday time frame,
increasing chances for at least isolated to scattered convection
across the region. North-northeasterly winds, increased
cloudiness, and potential rainfall may help nudge temperatures
back down into the mid- to upper 80s early next week.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns...Patchy fog tonight.

After a busy stretch of weather, we`ll finally have a period with
no thunderstorms expected within the next 30 hours at TAF sites.
The main concern, however, will be the potential for patchy fog
tonight into tomorrow morning. The DFW Metroplex TAF sites and
Waco will be on the western edge of any fog that develops,
therefore, confidence in it occurring remains low. We`ll continue
to refine the forecast this evening and adjust to the new
guidance. Tonight, winds will remain light and variable, further
increasing the potential for fog.

Any patchy fog will dissipate after sunrise, with winds becoming
established out of the south. Wind speeds will remain below 06
knots tomorrow with VFR skies continuing. Late afternoon ISO TS
will be possible on the outskirts of UKW`s cornerpost, however,
impacts within D10 are not expected.

Hernandez

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  96  74  94  77 /   0   5   5   5   0
Waco                70  94  71  93  75 /   0   5   5   5   0
Paris               64  92  69  90  72 /   0   5   5  20   0
Denton              66  94  69  93  76 /   0  10  10  10   0
McKinney            66  93  70  92  75 /   0   5   5  20   0
Dallas              70  95  72  95  77 /   0   5   5   5   0
Terrell             67  91  70  93  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Corsicana           71  91  72  94  75 /   0   0   0   5   0
Temple              72  94  71  95  75 /   0   5   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  97  71  96  75 /   0   5   5   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$