Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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576 FXUS64 KFWD 051900 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 200 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Tomorrow Afternoon/ This morning`s round of storms has now made it to the Gulf of Mexico, leaving behind dry conditions throughout North and Central Texas. The good news is that, for a change, we ARE NOT looking at another round of storms tonight. Many locations across North and Central Texas continue to experience flooding in low-water crossings due to the multiple rounds of rain over the last few weeks. Improvements are expected to continue today into tomorrow. Temperatures today will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s as mostly clear skies continue through the rest of the day. Tonight, clear skies and light winds are expected, setting the stage for fog development where rain occurred earlier today. Any fog that develops will dissipate after sunrise tomorrow with clear skies much of the day. The main weather story tomorrow will be the return of the heat throughout the region as temperatures climb into the mid to upper 90s. Given plenty of moisture in the air, heat index values will approach the triple digit mark. Winds will be out of the south generally between 5 to 15. A front will stall across Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon and with sufficient daytime heating, a few thunderstorms will be possible in far western Oklahoma and the TX Panhandle. A few of these storms may move southeast grazing our northwestern most counties closer to sunset, however, the probability of this happening is less than 20%. These storms are expected to be sub-severe given fairly dry mid-levels and an elevated capping inversion. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 409 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024/ Update: Not much change has been made to the previous long term forecast aside from incorporating new long term NBM guidance, therefore the discussion below remains valid. The biggest uncertainty as of this issuance is the storm potential on Friday afternoon as a front stalls near the Red River. There still remains a low chance for precipitation, as some ensemble and cluster guidance shows slightly wetter solutions during Friday afternoon. The lack of upper level forcing for Friday atop the stalled front is keeping exact coverage and intensity a bit ambiguous. With all this in mind, have kept the previous forecast`s 15-20% PoPs across portions of North Texas for now. Prater Previous Discussion: /Wednesday Night and Beyond/ Mid-level high pressure will push overhead from the west Wednesday night into Thursday, allowing for our first day without any rain chances over our forecast area Thursday. With sunny skies region- wide and rain-free conditions, expect afternoon highs to peak in the mid- to upper 90s across much of North and Central Texas Thursday afternoon. Surface low pressure transiting east across Ontario and the Great Lakes region will drag a weak cold front south across the Plains toward North Texas Thursday night into Friday. Confidence is highest in the frontal boundary stalling near or just north of the Red River early Friday. High-resolution guidance over the next few days will help increase our confidence in a more precise placement of this boundary. Although mid-level ridging and a subtle capping inversion will likely inhibit widespread convection from developing during peak heating Friday afternoon, convergence in the vicinity of the surface trough may offer enough lift to get an isolated thunderstorm or two (~15-20% chance) going across portions of North Texas Friday afternoon/evening. Weak flow aloft will limit the severe threat, but a strong storm or two capable of producing small hail and gusty downburst winds remains possible. If any storms develop, they will quickly diminish late Friday evening with the loss of daytime heating. An upper trough looks to dig south over the Northern Great Plains by the weekend shunting the overhead ridge back to the south and west. This will put portions of the Southern Plains back under active northwest flow aloft. Periodic chances for MCS activity will persist through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, with the greatest chances for additional rainfall residing north of the I-20 corridor into Oklahoma. Slightly above-average temperatures in the low to mid-90s are expected over the weekend. Long-range guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger cold front will push into North Texas in the Sunday-Monday time frame, increasing chances for at least isolated to scattered convection across the region. North-northeasterly winds, increased cloudiness, and potential rainfall may help nudge temperatures back down into the mid- to upper 80s early next week. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Concerns...Patchy fog tonight. After a busy stretch of weather, we`ll finally have a period with no thunderstorms expected within the next 30 hours at TAF sites. The main concern, however, will be the potential for patchy fog tonight into tomorrow morning. The DFW Metroplex TAF sites and Waco will be on the western edge of any fog that develops, therefore, confidence in it occurring remains low. We`ll continue to refine the forecast this evening and adjust to the new guidance. Tonight, winds will remain light and variable, further increasing the potential for fog. Any patchy fog will dissipate after sunrise, with winds becoming established out of the south. Wind speeds will remain below 06 knots tomorrow with VFR skies continuing. Late afternoon ISO TS will be possible on the outskirts of UKW`s cornerpost, however, impacts within D10 are not expected. Hernandez && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 96 74 94 77 / 0 5 5 5 0 Waco 70 94 71 93 75 / 0 5 5 5 0 Paris 64 92 69 90 72 / 0 5 5 20 0 Denton 66 94 69 93 76 / 0 10 10 10 0 McKinney 66 93 70 92 75 / 0 5 5 20 0 Dallas 70 95 72 95 77 / 0 5 5 5 0 Terrell 67 91 70 93 74 / 0 0 0 5 0 Corsicana 71 91 72 94 75 / 0 0 0 5 0 Temple 72 94 71 95 75 / 0 5 5 0 0 Mineral Wells 69 97 71 96 75 / 0 5 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$