Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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740 FXUS64 KFWD 041108 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 608 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The previously mentioned storms in Oklahoma have grown upscale into a MCS over the last several hours and are currently moving across eastern North Texas. While the line has weakened below severe limits, we`ll still need to watch for any additional intensification as it continues south. Gusty winds and heavy rain are the primary threats with this activity. A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 1 PM to 8 PM this afternoon for portions of Central Texas due to peak heat indices up to 109 degrees. No major changes were made to the forecast aside from refining PoPs for this morning and for the expected MCS tonight into Wednesday morning. Therefore the discussion below remains valid. Prater Previous Discussion: /Today through Wednesday Afternoon/ The quiet that North and Central Texas has observed over the last few hours will eventually be disrupted. To our north, showers and storms have blossomed across Oklahoma just south of a instability gradient as a shortwave upper low moves across southeastern Kansas. The cluster should begin to eventually move south/southeast toward the Red River, impacting areas generally near and east of I-35 through the morning hours. Strong to severe storms will be possible, with a primary threat of damaging winds and secondary threat of hail. Instances of heavy rain may re- aggravate flooding in already saturated spots. While the MCS should move out of the region in the early afternoon, lingering isolated convection will be possible for an additional few hours. We`ll see a lull in activity late this afternoon, with afternoon highs peaking in the 80s and 80s. Persistently increased humidity will push afternoon heat index values above ambient temperatures, up to near 100-108 degrees. While the majority of the I-35 corridor will "reach criteria" today, our Heat Advisory criteria is a 2 day window. As such, we will only be issuing a Heat Advisory for portions of Central Texas. Nonetheless, it will feel quite hot this first week of June, so make sure to practice heat safety when out and about! Overnight into Wednesday, a very rinse-wash-repeat scenario is expected as another cluster of storms is expected to move south across Oklahoma and through North and Central Texas once again. Strong to severe storms capable of primarily large hail and damaging winds will be possible as the cluster moves across our eastern zones. Flooding will once again be an additional concern, so make sure to keep up with the forecast and road conditions. For those that do not see storms (mainly west of I-35), Wednesday will be hot and humid with highs in the low-mid 90s. While Heat Advisory criteria will be hit across portions of Central Texas, there is better "bust potential" regarding location of storms and the associated cold pools. Have foregone issuing any heat product for Wednesday at this time, but will need to be watched in future issuances. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024/ /Thursday Onward/ High pressure should build into the region Wednesday night as a mid-level ridge noses in from the west. Our forecast area should finally experience a thunderstorm-free day Thursday, which would be the first since May 20th. Unfortunately, the lack of rain also means temperatures will rebound into the mid-upper 90s Thursday afternoon. Heat index values will be higher, but generally below our Heat Advisory criteria. The high pressure will be short-lived as a backdoor cold front moves into North Texas Friday. Another MCS should develop along the front in Oklahoma late Thursday, but subtle mid-level ridging over our area only allows for a 20% chance of it moving south of the Red River Friday morning. As the front sags into our forecast area Friday, it should provide enough lift to develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Coarse global ensemble data struggled to resolve the location of the front and/or failed to initiate convection along the boundary, therefore QPF guidance is resulting in anomalously low PoPs from the NBM. We have added 30% PoPs across the central part of our forecast area, or about 50 miles north and south of where we think the front will be during peak heating Friday. It appears to be a high CAPE, low shear day with a low-end severe risk. Our main concern is damaging wind gusts from collapsing storms, but mid-level moisture advection would weaken downdrafts and lower the wind potential. The front will linger somewhere across the Southern Plains through the weekend before another backdoor cold front brings seasonally warm weather to the area early next week. Similar to Friday, isolated to scattered storms are expected near the fronts each afternoon. Since the placement of the fronts are still highly uncertain, we have broad 20-30% PoPs from Sunday onward. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ MVFR cigs have overspread the TAF sites and should prevail through the morning before scattering out to VFR. IFR has remained northeast of D10 for most of the morning, so have taken out the previous TEMPO for all asides KDAL. Storms to the northeast of D10 should remain east of D10. However, we will need to be wary of a southward moving gust front. If this were to move into D10, winds would temporarily shift to north flow beginning around 12Z. Otherwise, expect VFR and south-southeast winds around 15 kts to prevail today. Another deck of MVFR Stratus is expected after midnight tonight, blanketing the TAF sites around 06-07Z on Wednesday. Another line of storms is expected to move into North Texas after midnight tonight that will make a run at the D10 terminals near 12Z. Confidence of terminal impacts was too low to include VCTS at the tail-end of the TAF period. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 94 75 91 74 95 / 5 20 10 5 0 Waco 92 75 91 74 93 / 5 10 10 5 5 Paris 87 71 87 69 92 / 30 40 20 5 5 Denton 94 73 90 71 94 / 10 20 5 5 5 McKinney 91 73 89 71 93 / 10 30 10 5 5 Dallas 94 75 92 74 96 / 5 20 10 5 0 Terrell 90 73 89 71 92 / 10 20 10 5 0 Corsicana 92 76 91 74 93 / 10 20 20 10 5 Temple 94 75 92 74 93 / 5 10 10 5 5 Mineral Wells 96 73 93 71 96 / 5 10 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ142-156>160-174-175. && $$