136
FXUS64 KFWD 082242
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
542 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight Through Sunday/

Another sunny and hot summer day is in the books with afternoon
temperatures in the middle/upper 90s and heat index values around
100 for several locations. The only thing that made the heat a bit
more tolerable was a breezy south wind. Wind speeds and temperatures
will gradually fall after sunset, reaching the lower to middle
70s by sunrise.

The center of the upper ridge responsible for the sunny and hot
weather will shift slowly southeast on Sunday while an upper trough
swings across the Great Lakes and Midwest. The passage of the
trough axis will send a weak cold front southward through Oklahoma,
reaching near the Red River around sunset. The front will be a
focus for afternoon storms, but these should dissipate with the
loss of heating. We will also see storms form on the dryline across
West Texas Sunday afternoon, but they will also have a very low
chance of reaching the forecast area due to weak mid-level winds.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024/
/Sunday Night Through Next Weekend/

We`ll be watching two distinct areas of convection Sunday
afternoon, one associated with a West Texas dryline and the other
with a late-season cold front in Oklahoma. The West Texas activity
will separate from the dryline, encouraged to move into the deeper
moisture to the east, but generally weak steering flow will make
this a slow process. The frontal convection to our north should
steadily become outflow-dominant, weakening or diminishing
entirely during the evening hours. Both of these areas will be
largely driven by daytime heating, and with little upper support
and no nocturnal low-level jet, neither should thrive Sunday
night. Low PoPs will address the potential for either/both areas
to enter the region during the overnight hours. The 3-km NAM is
bullish on renewed convection along the frontal/outflow boundary
early Monday morning, but with little to support this, other
available CAM guidance is more appropriately quiet. Weak shear
should focus the convective mode toward rather disorganized multi-
cell clusters that at worst could contain small hail and gusty
winds.

As is typical for this time of year, guidance has poor handle on
the evolution of the surface boundary. Despite the uncertainty in
its position on Monday, it should still remain in the vicinity,
serving as a focus for convective initiation during the afternoon
hours. Sunday`s activity across West Texas will have disrupted the
mid-level flow, and this weakness will be drifting over North and
Central Texas at peak heating Monday afternoon. While this may
encourage additional showers and storms to develop (not associated
with the surface boundary), these convective elements will also
suffer from weak shear. But with adequate instability, the
stronger cells could still result in small hail and gusty winds.

A more potent shortwave will dive into North Texas on Tuesday when
another round of showers and storms may result. Seasonally warm
temperatures and rich boundary layer moisture will maintain the
instability, and the disturbance aloft will introduce an uptick in
shear. But with weak boundary layer flow and the lack of any
surface focus, any convection would likely remain disorganized
Tuesday afternoon. However, the GFS wants to surge an MCS through
the region. The ECMWF delays this potential until Wednesday.

After the rain/cloud-diminished temperatures during the first half
of the upcoming workweek, ridging will nose back into the Lone
Star State, pushing daytime temperatures back above normal late in
the week. Next weekend looks like a repeat of this weekend,
seasonal early summer temperatures with elevated humidity.

25

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Only some passing high clouds are expected through tonight across
the entire region. A 40 knot low level jet will send some stratus
northward from the Texas Hill Country overnight, briefly reaching
Central Texas, including Waco, around or just after sunrise. All
ceilings will quickly lift and scatter with the onset of vigorous
boundary layer mixing. It is possible that a few low clouds will
reach D10 Sunday morning, but no low ceilings are expected.

A south wind will continue in the 8 to 13 knot range. Occasional
gusts around 20 knots are likely, especially through sunset and
late this evening/overnight.

No storms are expected at the TAF sites through Sunday but a few
storms may approach the Bowie and Bonham corner posts late in the
afternoon.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  93  74  88  72 /   0   0  10  30  20
Waco                73  91  74  89  72 /   0   0   5  20  20
Paris               72  91  70  84  67 /   0  10  10  20  10
Denton              72  93  70  86  70 /   0   5  10  30  20
McKinney            72  92  71  86  70 /   0   0  10  30  20
Dallas              73  94  74  88  72 /   0   0   5  30  20
Terrell             71  91  71  87  69 /   0   0   5  20  20
Corsicana           73  92  74  89  73 /   0   0   5  20  20
Temple              72  93  72  91  72 /   0   0   5  20  10
Mineral Wells       72  95  71  88  71 /   0   5  10  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$