Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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831 FXUS63 KGID 041735 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. There is only a low chance for severe weather in southeastern portions of the area (Osborne to Geneva to the southeast). - Dry and hot on Wednesday. There is a chance (~40% for tri- cities) that high temperatures reach 90 degrees. - More chances for thunderstorms Friday through the weekend, although the threat for organized or widespread severe weather appears low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are currently moving across the area in response to an upper shortwave moving through the northern Plains. Near-term forecast models show coverage of rain/storms increasing later this morning later this morning (9am to 12pm) before a surface cold front and drier air arrive from the northwest. By late afternoon, this cold front will have pushed through most of the forecast area, except for our southeastern areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of and near the front late this afternoon into this evening (4pm to 8pm). MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg and 0-6km shear of 30-40kts will support a few strong to severe updrafts for a brief period before the cold front pushes storms to our southeast this evening. Dry conditions are expected to return to the entire area by 10pm, at the latest. The entire area should will see a break from thunderstorm chances Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday could also be the warmest day of the year so far in some areas. Aided by a steady westerly wind, high temperatures are expected to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s (warmest in the south). Thursday will be a touch cooler, thanks to the passage of another frontal boundary Wednesday night. That said, high temperatures are still expected to be near-normal (highs in the low to mid 80s for most). The area remains in northwesterly upper-level flow Friday through the weekend and into early next week. Perturbations will bring off/on chances for rain and thunderstorms. Of course convective details are extremely uncertain, but the overall threat for severe weather appears to be relatively low (especially for early-mid June). The latest CSU-MLP probabilities only show the 5 percent contour in portions of the area Friday through Monday. As we head into next week, deterministic models favor increased troughing over the eastern CONUS, and ensembles favor below- normal temperatures (highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s). Ensembles also slightly favor below-normal precipitation into next week, although the signal is not overly strong for our forecast area. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Main concern comes within the first few hours of the period, as a surface frontal boundary and storm chances push through the area. Because activity looks to be more isolated/scattered in nature and confidence in impact at the terminals, kept as a VCTS mention, but will be keeping an eye on how things evolve this afternoon. Winds currently are on the lighter side and somewhat variable, this front will usher in gusty northerly winds mid- late afternoon. Once these storm chances pass, dry weather and VFR conditions are forecast for the rest of the period. Winds this evening turn light/variable again, becoming westerly early Wed morning...gusts near 20-25 MPH are possible for the final few hours of the period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...ADP