Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
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229 FXUS63 KGID 070524 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1224 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The whole forecast area has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. - The main concerns with any severe storms that develop on Friday will be large hail and damaging winds. - High temperatures will be in the lower 70s to mid 90s. Low temperatures will be in the lower 50s to upper 60s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Today and tonight... An upper trough extends from Canada to the Midwest and northern and central Plains. Mostly northerly winds are across south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Sunny skies are across the area with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Southerly winds return to the area tonight with low temperatures mostly in the 50s. Friday and Friday night... The previously mentioned upper trough will move further east on Friday with another upper trough beginning to move over the northern Plains. A shortwave trough is expected to move over south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas on Friday which will increase upper lift. High temperatures on Friday will warm up into the low 80s to mid 90s as winds increase out of the south. Dewpoint temperatures will mostly be in the 60s Friday afternoon. Zero to six km bulk shear will be around 50 knots and surface CAPE of over 2,000 J/kg is expected across most of the area on Friday. Mid-level lapse rates will be around 7 degrees C/km according to the NAM12. These conditions will lead to a potential of severe thunderstorms for Friday afternoon into Friday night. All of the forecast area is in a slight risk per the Storm Prediction Center`s day 2 outlook. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. Mostly northerly winds will be across the area Friday night behind the convection. Low temperatures Friday night are expected to range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Saturday through Sunday night... The northerly winds will continue into Saturday as a surface high moves closer. Temperatures on Saturday will be cooler than the previous day with highs ranging from the low 70s to mid 80s. Cooler temperatures are expected Saturday night with lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s. Temperatures on Sunday will be similar to the previous day as winds become more easterly. The GFS is showing an upper low centered over the dakotas Sunday night with a cold front moving into south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The ECMWF is not showing a cold front but keeps winds out of the southeast. Both models are indicating some precipitation but the GFS has the most widespread rain due to it showing a front. Kept chances of rain low (15% to around 20%) due to the uncertainty. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the 50s. Monday through Wednesday night... High temperatures on Monday are expected to be similar to those on Sunday. Some of the models are showing rain for Monday, but only have slight (15% to near 20%) chances in the forecast due to model inconsistencies. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will warm up a little on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Slight chances (15% to around 25%) of precipitation will be present on Tuesday as an upper trough begins to move east of the area. Low temperatures Tuesday night will warm up slightly from the previous night. Temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s are expected on Wednesday as an upper ridge builds over the southern Plains. Low temperatures Wednesday night are expected to mostly be in the 60s with southerly winds. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the day Friday, with the potential for MVFR CIGS across the TAF sites Friday evening as showers and thunderstorms move through the area. Winds will be southerly and light through the majority of Friday morning. Wind speeds will increase to around 15 kts sustained with gusts to around 25 kts Friday afternoon and early evening. Winds will be southeasterly at around 10 kts Friday evening, but may become gusty and erratic near any thunderstorms (more likely at KGRI than at KEAR). Toward the end of the TAF period, winds will become easterly to northeasterly. Regarding showers and thunderstorms Friday evening...while strong to severe storms are possible, the majority of the thunderstorm activity is expected to remain northeast of the TAF sites. More model guidance has thunderstorms at least in the vicinity of KGRI than KEAR, so introduced VCTS into the TAFs for KGRI, but confidence is too low to introduce this into KEAR at this time. Model guidance also indicates the potential for some patchy fog just beyond the scope of this set of TAFs (early Saturday AM)...will take another look with the next TAF issuance. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Schuldt AVIATION...Hickford