888
FXUS63 KGID 060914
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
414 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Early morning showers clear out by 7-8am. Dry and breezy for
  the rest of the day today.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday into Friday night.
  Some could be severe, mainly 5pm to midnight.

- Low chances for rain/t-storms Saturday through Tuesday, mainly
  during the overnight hours. Overall, below-normal rain totals
  are favored through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A band of midlevel clouds is bisecting the forecast area is
visible on IR satellite, along with a few showers developing on
radar as of 345am. An isolated rumble of thunder cannot be ruled
out, but severe weather is not expected. This activity will
continue to push southeastward this morning. The vast majority
of areas will stay dry this morning, and areas that do see rain
will likely receive 0.10" or less. This activity should exit the
area entirely by 7-8am.

Dry conditions are expected for the rest of the day, with breezy
northwesterly winds. These winds will be strongest over
northeastern portions of the forecast area that are closer to
the deep upper trough centered over the Great Lakes.

Friday could once again start off with some high-based showers
or isolated t-storms, but the main timeframe for thunderstorms
is expected to be as a more organized shortwave arrives late in
the afternoon and through the evening. Exact convective details
remain somewhat uncertain, but CAMs generally depict a few
clusters of storms moving from northwest to southeast across the
area in the 5pm to midnight timeframe. With abundant deep-layer
shear (50kt+ 0-6km) and ample instability (1500-2500 J/kg
MUCAPE), these storms will be capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts. As such, the SPC has added a "Slight Risk" (level 2
of 5) to most of the forecast area.

The passage of a cold front will usher in cooler air for the
weekend and into early next week. High temperatures are expected
to stay in the 70s for most of the area Saturday through Monday.
There are additional chances for thunderstorms during this
period, especially Monday night as a more organized shortwave
moves through. That said, global ensembles continue to favor
below-normal precipitation totals overall. The latest NBM shows
only a 20-40% chance for even 0.50" of total rain Saturday
through Monday night.

Rising heights aloft will signal for warming temperatures for
the middle to end of next week. This will also likely be another
relatively dry period, with all 3 major global ensembles (GEFS,
EPS, GEPS) all favoring below-normal precipitation through at
least the middle of June.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Northwest winds gradually decrease through the day on Thursday,
becoming light/variable Thursday evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels