Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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445 FXUS63 KGLD 111113 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 513 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s. - Isolated thunderstorm chances the next couple of days, with slightly better chances Thursday night. A few marginally severe storms possible. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 130 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Scattered showers continue to weaken across southwest Nebraska tonight and should be done by 12z. Otherwise, may see some patchy fog this morning in northern Yuma County where rain fell earlier, then morning clouds will give way to afternoon sun with highs in the upper 80s and light winds. There is a low probability of afternoon showers/isolated thunderstorms along a weakening frontal boundary, roughly located along Interstate 70. There is also a weak wave coming over the top of the ridge to the west which may contribute additional lift. Environment will be characterized by weak instability, 500-1000 j/kg, and weak shear of around 20-25 kts. Severe storms are not anticipated and should dissipate shortly after 00z this evening. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Upper ridge expands eastward across the central plains on Wednesday with temperatures warming into the upper 90s. There will be a surface trough/dry line setting up in the afternoon in eastern portions of the area, roughly Norton to Tribune in northwest Kansas, which may be the focus for isolated afternoon thunderstorms. The environment on the moist side of the dry line will be moderately unstable, up to 1500 j/kg is forecast, with deep layer of 30 kts. So, should a storm pop cannot totally rule out a chance for small hail/gusty winds through the early evening hours. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 60s to around 70. Upper ridge will be centered over New Mexico and southern Colorado on Thursday. Temperatures will be very warm once again with upper 90s to near 100 south of Interstate 70, low to mid 90s north. Shortwave trough rotating around the ridge will trigger widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. Moisture will be increasing across the area with an easterly surface wind and dew points forecast to be in the 50s and 60s. Nocturnal timing is not ideal, but there will be plentiful MUCAPE available with models showing anywhere from 2000-4000 j/kg and deep layer shear of around 30-35 kts. While not currently outlooked for severe storms, the parameters suggest at least a low end threat for hail and wind with stronger storms. Low temperatures Thursday night will be mainly in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 132 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Heading into Friday, the upper ridge formerly over the Four Corners region shifts eastward as an upper low moves into the Desert Southwest then proceeds into the Plains on Saturday. With low level east-southeasterly flow, an uptick in moisture drawn into the area places PWATs in the range of 1-1.75 inches by Friday evening, promoting increased precipitation potential with arrival of a shortwave. As mentioned in prior discussion, if timing of this feature is later in the evening-overnight, it lowers confidence in severe weather potential with any storms; however, will want to continue to monitor as models come into better agreement in case timing speeds up just enough to allow at least a brief window for a few severe storms. The main story will be the beneficial rainfall which looks to move through much of the area Friday night. The upper low will then cross through the area on Saturday, followed by west- southwesterly flow through the remainder of the long term period as shortwaves continue to impact the area, keeping daily chances for showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance. With the late week system, high temperatures drop off from the mid- week near triple digit heat - into the upper 80s and lower 90s. We`ll warm up again into the mid-upper 90s on Sunday as skies clear behind the exiting low pressure system, with upper 80s-90s continuing into the start of the next work week. Overnight low through the period will generally be in the upper 50s to 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 511 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, but probability of directly impacting either terminal is low. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...024 LONG TERM...CC AVIATION...024