145
FXUS63 KGLD 110732
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
132 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for storms in Eastern Colorado during the
  evening hours on today. Potential for severe weather is low.

- Break in the active weather pattern mid week with triple
  digit high temperatures.

- Best rain chances for the week, and possibly the rest of the month,
  are toward the end of the week.

- Severe weather occurring will be greatly influenced by the time
  of day the upper level short wave troughs move through late
  this week and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Currently, a 500mb low pressure system is sitting over Texas and
slowly moving east, another low is extending a weak trough over the
western Great Lakes, and a mild ridge is moving east from the Great
Basin. As the day progresses, a very weak shortwave will eject from
the north-central Rockies and move east-southeast. This will allow a
line of storms to form near the Cheyenne, WY area and move towards
the CWA. Due to minimal shear and a fairly capped environment, the
storms look to decay as they near Yuma county, around 0Z. The
northwestern half of Yuma county will have a chance to see severe
thunderstorms, likely just winds nearing 60 MPH. Far northwestern
Kit Carson county may see some severe weather too, but Yuma has a
higher chance (~10-20%). Farther to the southeast, locations may see
some showers and strong winds, but severe level hazards will be
fairly limited.

Overnight, low temperatures will drop to near 60 and light showers
and sprinkles may form near 12Z. This light precipitation would
likely reach across majority of the CWA, if it does form. If these
showers and sprinkle do form, they would last until around noon and
greatly reduce the potential for convection in the evening hours. If
the showers do not form, or stop early in the morning, we could see
some thunderstorms move through the southern CWA tomorrow late
afternoon.

High temperatures tomorrow look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
while temperatures will cool off into the upper 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 132 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Heading into Friday, the upper ridge formerly over the Four Corners
region shifts eastward as an upper low moves into the Desert
Southwest then proceeds into the Plains on Saturday. With low level
east-southeasterly flow, an uptick in moisture drawn into the area
places PWATs in the range of 1-1.75 inches by Friday evening,
promoting increased precipitation potential with arrival of a
shortwave. As mentioned in prior discussion, if timing of this
feature is later in the evening-overnight, it lowers confidence in
severe weather potential with any storms; however, will want to
continue to monitor as models come into better agreement in case
timing speeds up just enough to allow at least a brief window for a
few severe storms. The main story will be the beneficial rainfall
which looks to move through much of the area Friday night. The upper
low will then cross through the area on Saturday, followed by west-
southwesterly flow through the remainder of the long term period as
shortwaves continue to impact the area, keeping daily chances for
showers/storms, generally around a 20-30% chance.

With the late week system, high temperatures drop off from the mid-
week near triple digit heat - into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
We`ll warm up again into the mid-upper 90s on Sunday as skies clear
behind the exiting low pressure system, with upper 80s-90s
continuing into the start of the next work week. Overnight low
through the period will generally be in the upper 50s to 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
south-southwest around 10-15kts through 13z Tuesday, then
then light/variable. From 18z onward south around 10kts.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
southwest around 10kts. By 08z, light/variable becoming east-
southeast around 10kts from 16z onward. LLWS 08z-16z Tuesday
220@40kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN