306
FXUS63 KGLD 101826
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1226 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for storms in Eastern Colorado during the
  evening hours on today. Potential for severe weather is low.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit high temperatures.

- Next system looks to impact the area Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Currently, a 500mb low pressure system is sitting over Texas and
slowly moving east, another low is extending a weak trough over the
western Great Lakes, and a mild ridge is moving east from the Great
Basin. As the day progresses, a very weak shortwave will eject from
the north-central Rockies and move east-southeast. This will allow a
line of storms to form near the Cheyenne, WY area and move towards
the CWA. Due to minimal shear and a fairly capped environment, the
storms look to decay as they near Yuma county, around 0Z. The
northwestern half of Yuma county will have a chance to see severe
thunderstorms, likely just winds nearing 60 MPH. Far northwestern
Kit Carson county may see some severe weather too, but Yuma has a
higher chance (~10-20%). Farther to the southeast, locations may see
some showers and strong winds, but severe level hazards will be
fairly limited.

Overnight, low temperatures will drop to near 60 and light showers
and sprinkles may form near 12Z. This light precipitation would
likely reach across majority of the CWA, if it does form. If these
showers and sprinkle do form, they would last until around noon and
greatly reduce the potential for convection in the evening hours. If
the showers do not form, or stop early in the morning, we could see
some thunderstorms move through the southern CWA tomorrow late
afternoon.

High temperatures tomorrow look to be in the upper 80s to low 90s
while temperatures will cool off into the upper 50s to mid 60s
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

During the latter part of the work week an upper low situated off
the Pacific Coast begins its inland progression, eventually breaking
down the ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the
area.

Following triple digit heat on Thursday, temperatures at the end of
the work week and over the weekend will lower slightly - into the
mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s
to middle 60s. After the warming/drying trend with an upper
ridge in place mid-week, shower/storm chances return Thursday
evening-night, continuing each day through the remainder of the
long term period as the next system nears and subsequently
moves through the area. Guidance suggests a potential for strong
to severe storm development in this timeframe, supported by
shortwaves moving through the flow, sufficient instability,
shear, and increased moisture (still looking at PWATs around
1-1.75 inches for Friday). Will continue to monitor as this time
period nears.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions at both KGLD and KMCK are expected to persist
through the period. There is a chance (~25%) that KGLD will have
a broken ceiling around 2,900 ft AGL today. Storms are expected
in eastern Colorado today that may send out an outflow boundary
that would cause a sudden shift and jump in winds. This would
likely happen around 3Z, but timing confidence is very low.
Otherwise, happy flying!

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CA