898
FXUS63 KGLD 101725
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a chance for storms in Eastern Colorado during the
  evening hours on today. Potential for severe weather is low.

- Potential break in the active weather pattern mid week with
  near triple digit high temperatures.

- Next system looks to impact the area Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 125 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Shortwave trough moves from the northern Rockies into the
northern plains this afternoon and tonight. Appears to be just
enough forcing for convection to develop as far south as eastern
Colorado along the old frontal boundary. Late afternoon
environment will be weak to moderately unstable, up to 1000 j/kg
in western Yuma County, and weakly sheared, around 25 kts of
deep layer shear in the same area. Given the fairly weak forcing
further south from the main shortwave and the marginal environmental
parameters, a marginal risk for severe storms seems appropriate
for northeast Colorado. Instability quickly falls off after
dark and storms will weaken, though continue a slow but steady
march to the east. Other weakening storms in western Nebraska
may persist into the overnight hours along the Kansas and
Nebraska border area. High temperatures today will be in the low
80s and lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue north of
Interstate 70 Tuesday morning along a weakening front/outflow
boundary from overnight storms. The chances shift to south of
Interstate 70 in the afternoon where just enough instability
develops, 500-1000 j/kg is forecast, and deep layer shear,
around 25 kts, for a low probability of a stronger storm or two.
Forcing is nebulous at best, perhaps a weak shortwave trough
coming over the southern Rockies ridge, so coverage will be
scattered at best. Not expecting this activity to persist past
00z with loss of surface heating. High temperatures will be in
the upper 80s and lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 60s.

The southern Rockies ridge builds east and expands over the
adjacent plains on Wednesday, beginning a period of hot and dry
conditions. Heating will be aided by a southwesterly downsloping
wind. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s with perhaps a
few locations reaching triple digits. Low temperatures Wednesday
night will range from the upper 60s in Colorado to the lower 70s
in north central Kansas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

During the latter part of the work week an upper low situated off
the Pacific Coast begins its inland progression, eventually breaking
down the ridge, and allowing a return of more active weather to the
area.

Following triple digit heat on Thursday, temperatures at the end of
the work week and over the weekend will lower slightly - into the
mid 80s to low-mid 90s. Overnight lows are forecast in the upper 50s
to middle 60s. After the warming/drying trend with an upper
ridge in place mid-week, shower/storm chances return Thursday
evening-night, continuing each day through the remainder of the
long term period as the next system nears and subsequently
moves through the area. Guidance suggests a potential for strong
to severe storm development in this timeframe, supported by
shortwaves moving through the flow, sufficient instability,
shear, and increased moisture (still looking at PWATs around
1-1.75 inches for Friday). Will continue to monitor as this time
period nears.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions at both KGLD and KMCK are expected to persist
through the period. There is a chance (~25%) that KGLD will have
a broken ceiling around 2,900 ft AGL today. Storms are expected
in eastern Colorado today that may send out an outflow boundary
that would cause a sudden shift and jump in winds. This would
likely happen around 3Z, but timing confidence is very low.
Otherwise, happy flying!

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CA