315
FXUS63 KGLD 111852
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1252 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures in the
  upper 90s to lower 100s.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances the next couple of days, with
  slightly better chances Thursday night. A few marginally
  severe storms possible.

- Another precipitation system looks to enter Friday and last
  through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Currently, a 500mb low pressure system is sitting over
Texas/Oklahoma and slowly moving east, and over the Northern Plains,
there is mild northwesterly flow. Down at the surface, there is a
weak convergence zone over Kit Carson county. As the day progresses,
an extremely weak shortwave will eject from the Rockies and move
east-southeast. This would give a chance (<20%) that a few showers
or a storm could form and move into the southwestern CWA. Until
around 21Z, there is a slim (~5%) chance that a brief landspout
forms along this boundary in Kit Carson county. Other than this slim
chance, no severe weather is expected. Overnight, low temperatures
will drop into the 60s.

Overnight tonight, a high pressure system will shove into southern
New Mexico and Arizona, and extend an amplifying ridge over the Great
Plains. This will allow southerly flow and clear skies tomorrow to
raise the temperatures into the 90s and low 100s.

As the ridge pushes north along the Rockies and begins interacting
with the jet stream, a shortwave disturbance looks to form around
0Z. This shortwave will allow an 850mb lee low to form near
northwestern Nebraska. This low will generally move east, but could
dip to the south a bit and impact the CWA. A weak warm front will be
draped to the south of the low and would act as forcing tomorrow
evening. If our 850mb southerly flow/LLJ is able to transport
moisture into the CWA, we will see some storms tomorrow evening.
Getting the moisture this far west will be the difficult task, which
lowers confidence of storms tomorrow night to about 15-20% at most.
If any precipitation does form, it will move to the east but
additional precipitation will grow to the south, and only impact
areas along and east of highway 83.

Around 6Z, a weak cold front attached to the low looks to gently
sweep over northeastern Colorado. This creates about a 10-15% chance
that our far northwestern CWA could see some showers around that
time. Low temperatures tomorrow night only look to cool off into the
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

On Thursday, as the 250mb ridge amplifies over the Great Plains, a
cut-off low re-enters the flow and moves to the northeast. This low
provides an opportunity for fairly organized convection or occur
Friday evening, and increased chances of precipitation Thursday
through Sunday. At 850mb, a high pressure system near Arkansas will
provide moisture to the LLJ to pull into the CWA. This looks to
potentially increase PWATs well over an inch again. If this system
becomes a MCS that exposes the same location to a few rounds of
heavy rain, flooding will become an issue. 0C line looks to be
around 16-17k kft, MLCAPE is around 2,000 J/kg, and effective shear
is around 40 kts according to the GFS.

Once this low moves out of the area, we look to return to
southwesterly flow before as another low enters the NW CONUS.

Temperatures in the long-term look to remain in the upper 80s to
upper 90s, with the occasional triple digit heat. Overnight lows
will only be cooling into the upper 50s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1047 AM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions look to prevail at both KMCK and KGLD through the
TAF period. Winds are currently light and variable, becoming
southeasterly this afternoon before becoming southwesterly
overnight. We could see some light showers near KGLD late this
afternoon, but no impacts are expected at or around the
airport.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...CA