Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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483 FXUS62 KGSP 101820 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 220 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front remains across the Gulf Coast to the Georgia coast through mid week with dry conditions under weak high pressure. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected by next weekend as a weak cold front approaches from the north. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal at end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Monday: A trough situated north of the CWA will progress eastward as a strong ridge axis over the central/northern CONUS amplifies. Flow aloft starts off in a quasi-zonal state and becomes more of a broad NW direction by the end of the period. Meanwhile, a weakened frontal boundary sags south of the area and takes the last bits of QPF with it. Behind the front, a modest amount of moisture lingers with PWATS near 1.0 inch as weak northerly flow slows down the arrival of drier air. By Tuesday morning, PWATS will start to decrease as the drier, sfc high pressure arrives and mixes down the dewpoints a bit. Throughout Tuesday, the higher pressure expands toward the east, toggling sfc winds N/NE and keeps the area dry. Temperatures overnight will be the coolest night of the week and highs on Tuesday start to rebound with temps near climo. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Monday: High pressure settles in over the area from the northeast through the period as some weak short waves move through the NW flow aloft, mainly north of the area. Guidance continues to show cyclogenesis taking place off the FL Coast Wednesday with it slowly moving E or NE. However, the global models continue to show it relatively weak and far enough south and east for little effect on our weather. The NAM and SREF show it stronger and far enough north for moisture to move in on southeasterly flow. Model blend keeps the forecast dry, so have followed that trend for now, but given the disagreement, the forecast could change. Highs near normal Wednesday rise 5 degrees on Thursday. Lows start out as much as 5 degrees below normal and rise about 5 degrees Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Monday: Guidance coming into better agreement for this period. Upper trough moves east Friday with an anti-cyclone building over the area Saturday. This remains in place Sunday and moves toward the Carolina coast Monday. During this time a weak upper low develops in the Gulf of Mexico, approaching the MS Delta Sunday and moves into the Lower MS Valley Monday. A weak cold front drops toward the area Friday, across the area Saturday then dissipates on Sunday as high pressure builds in from the northeast. Some weak southerly flow develops between the high center and a weak surface low associated with the upper low. The guidance agrees on the weak southerly flow remaining over our area Monday with any stronger southerly flow, and deeper moisture, to our west closer to the surface low moving on shore. The result is slowly increasing, mainly diurnal, PoP through the period. Isolated convection Saturday, and scattered Sunday and Monday, favoring the mountains and southerly upslope areas each day. Well above normal highs expected Friday and Saturday, with mid 90s possible outside of the mountains, then fall as much as 5 degrees Sunday and a couple more degrees on Monday. Lows remain above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions for all terminals through the end of the period. Showers have moved out of the area with drier air slowly coming in. This will help keep CIGS at most SCT stratocu this afternoon. No VSBY concerns at this time. Winds are expected to remain light, but toggle NW/NE and at times could become VRB. Higher pressure at the surface will move eastward overnight and turn winds NE. Gusts are not expected, though KAVL has registered very low-end g15. All in all, quiet weather and VFR. Outlook: Dry sfc high pressure remains through the end of the work week, with little chance for convection or restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CP SHORT TERM...RWH LONG TERM...RWH AVIATION...CP