Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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996 FXUS62 KGSP 312047 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 447 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure centered over the region will keep temperatures slightly below normal, with dry weather persisting through Saturday. High pressure shifts offshore Sunday with warming temperatures and increasing moisture. A more active stretch of weather may return early next week with daily afternoon thunderstorm chances within a summer like pattern. Another cold front will approach the area late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 445 PM EDT Friday...Temp obs were running a few degrees cooler than the forecast and dew points were running a a few degrees higher than the forecast so went ahead and decided to do an earlier update as to get the forecast back on track. Went ahead and increased cloud cover through early this evening as the latest visible satellite loops show thick cirrus across most of the western Carolinas this afternoon. A few daytime cumulus have developed across the southern NC mtns as well. Otherwise, a broad area of sct to bkn cirrus continues to make its way eastward this afternoon. Expect the high clouds to become more sct through tonight. This should allow for decent radiational cooling, leading to low temps tonight ending up 1 to 2 categories below climatology. Otherwise, a robust upper trof will continue to translate eastward and off the Atlantic Coast while a stout upper ridge builds over the eastern CONUS. By the end of the near-term period Saturday evening, an embedded upper shortwave will help push the upper ridge axis further east and over the Atlantic Coast. At the sfc, broad high pressure will continue to slide SSE thru the period and will be moving off the SE Coast by the end of the period. This should keep us dry with below normal temperatures and dew points for Saturday. Relative humidity values will likely bottom-out near critical values again Saturday aftn mostly over the NC Piedmont, however relatively weak winds should limit any fire danger concerns. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 pm Friday: Deep layer ridging will finally have relinquished much of its influence across our area early in the short term, with low level moisture increasing around the western periphery of the western Atlantic-centered anticyclone. Showers originating from a pre-frontal environment across the TN Valley may make a run toward the CWA as early as Sunday morning, during which time PoPs increase to the chance category across our western areas. The increasing moisture should support weak destabilization Sunday afternoon, with scattered diurnal convection anticipated, especially across the mountains, where general 40-60 PoPs are advertised. With surface high remaining centered over the western Atlantic, S/SW flow will support the continued increase of moisture during the latter half of the period, with another afternoon/evening of isolated/ widely scattered convection anticipated Tuesday. Temperatures will generally be right around normal through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 140 pm Friday: The upper air pattern will remain somewhat nebulous during at least the first half of the medium range, with levels of heating, moisture (and by extension, diurnal instability) expected to return to...if not a little higher than seasonal normals by the middle of next week. As such, this period of time will be dominated by scattered diurnal convection (generally 30-50 PoPs) and steadily warming temps. By late in the week, the global models are converging toward a consensus of introducing substantial height falls to the East...advertising a deep upper low moving into the Great Lakes region by the end of the period. Associated frontal zone could enhance diurnal convective chances Thursday, although confidence in timing is such that we generally stick with slightly-above-climo PoPs on Thursday, with a transition to diurnal/token convective chances next Friday. Temps are forecast to be a category or so above climo through the period. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: expect VFR conditions to continue thru the 18z taf period at all terminals with few to bkn high clouds thru the period. Winds will continue to weaken thru the evening as sfc high pressure slides further south and the larger-scale pressure gradient relaxes. Winds should go light and vrb to calm later tonight and remain that way thru tomorrow morning. They should pick up from the south by the early afternoon tomorrow but remain relatively weak thru 18z. Outlook: expect VFR conditions and dry wx to continue thru Saturday. Convective chances return on Sunday and linger into next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDL NEAR TERM...AR/JPT SHORT TERM...JDL LONG TERM...JDL AVIATION...JPT