014
FXHW60 PHFO 170647
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
847 PM HST Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge will remain locked in place north of the
Hawaii region through the rest of this week. A weak upper low
over the state will help produce brief periods of showers mainly
over the windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early
morning hours. The ridge to the north will strengthen with
slightly stronger easterly trade winds from Wednesday on into next
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar imagery this evening shows scattered showers developing
over and upstream of windward mountain ranges. Satellite imagery
shows a band of clouds moving into east Maui and the windward Big
Island that will likely spread periods of showers along the
windward slopes of both islands through the early morning hours.
A weak upper level low is lifting trade wind inversion heights this
afternoon, where they ranged from 6,000 feet at Lihue and 7,000
feet at Hilo. Temperature inversion heights at this level will
support typical trade wind showers favoring the windward and
mountain areas.

A subtropical high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands
will produce moderate to breezy trade winds lasting through the
week. A slight increase in the easterly trade wind breezes will
start on Wednesday and continue into next weekend as the ridge
north of the islands strengthens slightly. A cloud band from the
likely remnants of an old East Pacific front may roll through the
islands by next Saturday, enhancing shower activity a bit for next
weekend.

Otherwise not much changes are forecast in the day to day island
weather pattern with just more typical trade wind weather to
continue through the end of this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy easterly trades will continue, with clouds and brief
showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Periods of MVFR
conditions will be possible over these windward sections,
particularly overnight through the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed for
windward areas later tonight, mostly over the eastern end of the
state where a decent sized area of moisture/low clouds is moving
in.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate low level turbulence
lee of the island terrain across the state due to breezy trade
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain north-northeast of the area,
then gradually strengthen through the week. As a result, the
trades will become fresh to locally strong, with near-gale winds
in the Alenuihaha Channel and waters south of the Big Island on
Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA), currently in effect
for the normally windier areas around Maui County and the Big
Island, will likely continue through the week, with an expansion
to include the waters around Kauai and Oahu on Wednesday.

Surf along south facing shores will continue to slowly decline as
the south swell fades through Monday. For the rest of the week,
expect only background small, medium to long period, south to
southeast swell energy moving through the local waters.

North shore surf is expected to be small through the week, coming
from small, mainly medium-period, northwest swells. Surf along
east shores will become increasingly rough and choppy from Wednesday
onward as the trade winds strengthen across the state.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bohlin
AVIATION...Gibbs
MARINE...TS