Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
136 FXUS66 KHNX 282015 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 115 PM PDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A slight cooling trend will take place on Wednesday then a warming trend will follow on Thursday and Friday which will result in afternoon highs of 5 to 10 degrees above normal that will continue through Saturday. 2. There is a 65 to 85 percent probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 degrees on Friday in the San Joaquin Valley. 3. Gusty west winds are expected tonight and Wednesday morning for the Mojave Desert Slopes and Kern County Desert. && .DISCUSSION...An upper trough is pushing inland across the PAC NW which is maintaining an onshore flow over central CA today. The trough pulled a weak shortwave through our area today which has provided for enough instability and lift for a few showers to develop near the Sierra crest from Fresno County northward. The convection is expected to continue through late this afternoon and a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out for the Sierra crest today. The other impact this shortwave will have is that is will bring a period of increased onshore p-grads which will produce gusty winds across the Kern County Deserts this evening and tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Mojave Desert Slopes from 800 pm PDT this evening until 800 am Wednesday morning. Meanwhile as the trough moves further inland into the intermountain west region on Wednesday, the flow aloft will turn more northerly and bring a slight cooling trend to our area as heights and thicknesses lower some. However, daytime highs are still expected to be a few degrees above normal. SREF is showing an upper ridge building inland into CA on Thursday and Friday which will provide for mainly clear skies, dry weather and temperatures warming to well above daily climatological normals as heights and thicknesses rise. In fact, by Friday the latest NBM probabilistic guidance is indicating a 65 to 85 percent probability for temperatures to reach or exceed 95 DEG F in the San Joaquin Valley. A few locations might actually reach the century mark for the first time in 2024. Medium range ensemble means are showing the ridge breaking down and retrograding over the weekend as a shortwave drops through the Great Basin and brings a cooling trend to our area along with another period of breezy to windy conditions across the Mojave Desert Slopes and the Kern County Deserts. The ensemble means are then showing the ridge building back inland Monday through the middle of next week resulting in continued dry conditions and temperatures rising back up to several degrees above normal. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES...None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire wx...DAS idss...Molina weather.gov/hanford