Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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739 FXUS64 KHUN 112242 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 542 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Dry weather and rather comfortable conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley, with mid afternoon temperatures only in the lower 80s, and a northerly flow of 5-10 mph. A surface ridge over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley should continue building to the SE, and keep a cool trend going. Another cool night is expected as low temperatures cool into the mid 50s to around 60. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A dry trend should continue for the remainder of the work week, as the airmass in the aformentioned surface high moderates from a strong June sun. Highs on Wednesday should rise into the mid/upper 80s under generally sunny skies. A warming trend will continue as we near the upcoming weekend, with lows Wed night in the lower 60s. Summer conditions return Thursday with highs rising into lower 90s. Even warmer temperatures are forecast Friday, with highs heating into the low/mid 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Monday) Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Not many changes made with the extended period. A surface high over the eastern CONUS will stagnate even more as we go into the weekend. Strong and warm upper ridging will also build over the region, with 500mb heights rising to and above 590 decameters from Saturday into early next week. This and more sun than clouds will likely create a rather hot weekend. After lows Friday night in the mid 60s to lower 70s, highs Sat will soar into the mid 90s. Even warmer Sunday with highs in the mid/upper 90s. Heat Index values on Sat should rise into the mid 90s to 100, and upper 90s to 105 on Sun. The 105 readings were spotty over parts of NW Alabama. Previous discussion 408 AM... The center of the mid-level high is predicted to become centered directly across the TN Valley by Saturday, with the warming trend continuing as mostly sunny skies during the afternoon will support highs in the mid 90s on Friday and mid/upper 90s on Saturday (but roughly 5-10 degrees cooler both days atop the Cumberland Plateau). Unfortunately, it appears as if low-level moisture will begin to pool ahead of a weakening cold front that will drift southward into the TN Valley before stalling on Friday afternoon/evening as the parent surface low ejects northeastward across Quebec, and the increase in dewpoints will result in heat indices in the 95-99F range Friday and 98-102F range Saturday. The 500-mb high will begin to shift east-northeastward into the NC/VA vicinity on Sunday and Monday, allowing for a gradual increase in deep-layer SSE flow across the TN Valley by early next week. Although this configuration will eventually contribute to gradual moistening of the atmospheric column (and a subsequent increase in clouds and showers) this will likely not occur by Sunday, and highs are forecast to reach the m-u 90s, with heat index values in the 100-105F range. We have indicated a low (20-30%) POP for showers and thunderstorms returning to most of the region Sunday night/Monday, and have indicated lower afternoon temps on Monday as a result of this. However, if the subtropical ridge remains more influential (as indicated by several global models), then the hot/dry pattern may continue for several additional days next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at both KMSL and KHSV with light, northerly winds. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RSB SHORT TERM....RSB LONG TERM....70 AVIATION...HC