951
FXUS64 KHUN 180017
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
717 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

High pressure continues to remain the dominant weather feature
across the Tennessee Valley and is promoting dry and generally
clear conditions across the region. Scattered to broken decks of
mid to high clouds from a stalled low over the Carolinas have
infiltrated the eastern half of the area -- creating partly to
mostly cloudy conditions. Expect these clouds will thin later this
evening and overnight, with mostly clear and calm conditions
forecast across the region -- allowing temperatures to fall into
the lower 60s. This will also create a very favorable setup for
radiation fog, especially across northwest Alabama and the
Bankhead National Forest (where heavy rainfall occurred last
weekend). This fog will develop late this evening and may become
locally dense late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The area of low pressure to our east will shift NE into the Mid
Atlantic region as a ridge of high pressure over south Texas
expands eastward into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valley
mid to late week. The end result will be continued mostly clear
and dry weather and a gradual warming trend by the end of the work
week. Highs will gradually rise to the lower 90s by Friday, with
model soundings showing a very dry profile indicative of strong
subsidence from the ridge.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

High pressure will remain the dominating feature through the long
term forecast. Mid level ridging will build in from the SW and
remain through the weekend. While the overall trend will be clear
and dry conditions with temps in the high 80s to low 90s, we will
be monitoring any impacts from an upper low tracking east across
the CONUS. Being on the eastern periphery of high pressure will
place us in a NW flow regime marking a favorable pattern for SE
expansion of clouds and rain from the parent low. While the
current forecast is dry, we will be monitoring how these two
features interact (NW flow from high pressure and low pushing
east) over the next several days for any forecast changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A broken layer of As (with cloud bases btwn 6-10 kft) will
persist across the eastern portion of north AL this evening as the
region remains within the broader circulation around an upper low
across western SC. Although current satellite data suggests that
the leading edge of this cloud mass may spread westward with time
early this evening, it should begin to erode (or effectively move
eastward) beginning later tonight. Thus, we have sufficient
confidence in the development of BR/FG (in an otherwise favorable
environment) to introduce MVFR vsby reductions at 6Z followed by a
TEMPO group btwn 9-13Z, which is the timeframe when fog should be
most widespread and locally dense. Any fog will lift shortly
after daybreak, with NNW flow of 5-10 kts and a sct-bkn Cu field
developing by 14Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD