320
FXUS64 KHUN 122315
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
615 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A shortwave trough was moving east through AL this afternoon,
producing nothing more than mid and high clouds with it. With dew
points in the 50s to around 60, another comfortable afternoon was
in progress as well. For tonight, the high clouds will shift
southeast with the exiting trough. Patchy valley fog will be
possible late tonight. Morning lows will dip easily into the lower
60s for most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A 5h ridge over the Desert Southwest is still modeled consistently
to migrate into the Gulf South and TN valley region through
Saturday. This will mean an incremental rise in temperatures each
day. Low level flow will still remain light and variable for the
most part during this period. Thus, not expecting the deep Gulf
moisture layer nearer the coast to reach the area before Saturday.
However, dew points will experience a slow uptick through the
period back into the 60s. For temperatures, expect highs to
increase from the upper 80s to around 90 Thursday, into the lower
90s Friday, and a few middle 90s Saturday. A strong capping
inversion will prevent any pulse convection from developing at
this point.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain
and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat
uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection
in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near
the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf
moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make
it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track
of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the
work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain
chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this
issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with
cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period
moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat
relief and rain will arrive.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

VFR conditions have prevailed as diurnal cu dissipates with the
loss of solar heating and high cirrus expected to move out of the
area later this evening. VFR conditions are forecast through the
TAF period with mostly clear skies and light/variable winds. Some
fog development is possible overnight, but confidence in fog
impacting either terminal is too low to include in TAFs at this
time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...25