807
FXUS64 KHUN 080140
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
840 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 840 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Clear/quiet conditions prevail across the mid TN Valley this Fri
evening, as high pressure gradually settles eastward into the
region. Current temps have dropped predom into the mid/upper 70s.
But with dew pts more in the upper 40s/mid 50s, overnight lows
should have little trouble falling into the upper 50s/lower 60s
for most spots, as sfc winds become light/var. Otherwise, clear
skies should continue into daybreak, as the sfc high continues to
edge further to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The surface high will shift east of the Tennessee Valley on
Saturday, veering our surface flow to the southwest flow. This
will gradually serve to modify the drier air mass, especially by
the evening hours (as seen by dewpoints creeping back into the
lower 60s). Hi-Res guidance is catching onto to a shortwave
triggering an MCS over Missouri and pivoting into Ohio Valley late
Friday night into Saturday. This feature may bring some
additional cloud cover, but the sensible weather on Saturday will
be warm/dry -- with highs peaking into the mid to upper 80s.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, a slightly more amplified
shortwave will move from the Ozarks into the Mid South and
portions of the lower Ohio Valley once again. Ensemble guidance
is hinting that this activity may put out an outflow somewhere
across Tennessee during the late morning/midday hours. This
feature may serve as an additional focus for convection Sunday
afternoon/evening into portions of Sunday night. Good instability
in an uncapped environment and more than sufficient bulk shear
value may support at least a few strong storms sometime during
this window. This activity should wane late Sunday night as the
environment becomes worked over and the remnant boundary pushes
south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Forecast uncertainty increases considerably toward the beginning
of next week, as the 0Z suite of global models offers a wide array
of solutions regarding both the upper flow pattern across the
eastern CONUS and eventual position of a cold front that is
expected to drift southward through the region early Monday
morning. Due primarily to uncertainties regarding frontal
location, we have left a low (20-30%) chance POP in the forecast
from Monday-Tuesday, especially as the projected orientation and
proximity of the boundary (and resultant thermal gradient) may
support impacts from additional clusters of thunderstorms that
could originate across OK/AR and spread east-southeastward into
the central Gulf Coast. By the end of the forecast period, a
blocking mid-level ridge is likely to become established across
the TN Valley to the north of a 500-mb trough that will drift
southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico before stalling.
This should result in warmer temperatures on Wednesday/Thursday,
along with a transition to mainly isolated thunderstorm activity
during the afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

With high pressure in place across much of the region, VFR conds
are expected thru the TAF period. Mid/high clouds will begin to
spread into the area from the NW heading into the afternoon hrs
Sat. Light/var winds will also become SSW near 7kt Sat morning.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM....AMP
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...09