848
FXUS64 KHUN 120747
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A weak shortwave trough centered over the ArkLaTex region is
currently supporting bands of mid to high clouds extending NE of
the area. This shortwave will trek SE of the area impacting only
our temperatures via the presence of high clouds. Cloud cover is
generally forecast to increase during the day as this feature
moves SE, yet there is still some uncertainty in exact coverage
and location of clouds. While cloudier conditions will keep
temperatures in the mid 80s for one more day, locations that see
clearer conditions than currently forecast will likely see temps
closer to the high 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Ongoing ridging in the SW CONUS will strengthen and progress east
through the duration of the short term bringing with it very hot
and dry (in the terms of precip) weather. The translation of the
500 MB ridge east across the CONUS will start a warming trend with
temps heating into the low 90s on Thursday. By the weekend, the
ridge will be centered nearly on top of us resulting in the
progression of high temps into the mid to high 90s by Saturday
with temps peaking on Sunday.

A surge of moisture ahead of a front to our north will only
increase the heat risk through the weekend. With dew points in the
high 60s arriving for the weekend, heat index values soar into the
100s Saturday and Sunday. With stout ridging provide ample
subsidence below it, there will be little in the way of heat
relief as both cloud cover and winds will be incredibly light each
day. That being said it will be increasingly important that
individuals take the precautions necessary to keep safe from both
the sun and the heat through the weekend. This includes wearing
proper sun protection and avoiding heat exhaustion by taking
frequent breaks in shade and staying hydrated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

The long term forecast poses the question when will we see rain
and heat relief? Unfortunately the answer remains somewhat
uncertain. By Sunday night there will likely be ongoing convection
in the southern Gulf associated with a Gulf low somewhere near
the Yucatan. Models diverge on how far north both the Gulf
moisture and eventual rain associated with this feature will make
it. The GFS favors weakening ridging and a more northward track
of gulf moisture bringing us rain and clouds for the start of the
work week. The Euro favors stronger ridging suppressing all rain
chances and yielding additional days in the high 90s. For this
issuance, kept low rain chances in through the long term with
cloudy conditions limiting temps to the low 90s. As this period
moves closer in time, guidance will become more clear on when heat
relief and rain will arrive.


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Winds at KHSV and KMSL should become lighter and drop to around 2
or 3 knots after 06Z. Dry air in place at the terminals should
keep fog from forming. Winds will pick up and become more north-
northeasterly after daybreak around 4 or 5 knots.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAD
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....RAD
AVIATION...KTW