786
FXUS63 KICT 110808
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
308 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above average temperatures Wednesday through at least early to mid
  next week.

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances Thursday evening through next
  Tuesday evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

TODAY--WEDNESDAY...For late this afternoon-evening, decided to
remove slight chances for thunderstorms over north-central Kansas,
as convergence along an approaching weak surface trough and meager
upper support does not appear enough to initiate a few isolated
showers/storms. With atmospheric thickness and southerly flow
increasing, temperatures will be warming the next few days, reaching
the 90s for most by Wednesday.

THURSDAY...Late afternoon-evening thunderstorm chances will be
focused over central and north-central Kansas in vicinity of a
stalling frontal zone approaching from the north. While frontal lift
looks decent, NIL upper support should keep activity fairly
isolated. Still, the potential for moderate to strong instability
amidst around 30 kts of deep layer effective shear should support a
few strong to severe thunderstorms, with the main threats being
large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, Thursday could be the
hottest day of the next 7-10 days, with forecast high temperatures
well into the 90s to low 100s. Combined with dewpoints in the 60s to
near 70 degrees, afternoon--early evening heat indices will likely
be around 100 to 105 degrees for many across the region.

FRIDAY--NEXT TUESDAY...This period will feature continued above
average temperatures, along with periodic chances for thunderstorms.
These thunderstorm chances look to be confined mainly to the
northern and western halves of Kansas. Despite rather marginal deep
layer shear, periodic moderate to strong instability should favor a
handful of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms throughout this
period. Widespread triple digit heat looks unlikely, although
widespread 90s are likely, with overnight lows in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the
next 24 hours.

Storms are expected to continue across central Nebraska with
some of this activity possibly making it into NW KS. However,
still confident that it will not make it into our forecast area.
So VFR conditions are likely through this TAF period with light
south and southeast winds.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...RBL