723
FXUS63 KICT 061728
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some severe storms with large hail and heavy rain will be
  possible Friday night into early Saturday.

- Seasonably cool air will arrive Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A mid/upper ridge was situated over the Southwest while an upper
level trough axis stretched from the Great Lakes area southeastward
toward the Mid-Atlantic. This has resulted in northwest mid/upper
flow across the central CONUS. A cold front was moving southward
into the Central Plains this morning. This front is progged to
continue southward ushering in seasonably cool air across the
area today. We could see some morning ACCAS or perhaps a brief
shower or sprinkle in parts of east central KS where some subtle
low level moisture transport and weak mucape are juxtaposed
early in the period but confidence in development remains fairly
low.

A subtle shortwave trough may arrive over the area on Friday in a
progressive northwest mid/upper flow regime. The low level airmass
will start out rather dry and slowly increase as we move through the
day on Friday with increasing convergent southeasterly flow
increasing in speed as we move through the day. It looks like sfc
parcels will remain capped through the day on Friday but some
elevated morning storms could impact parts of southwest Kansas and
this activity could drift northeastward during the morning hours. We
continue to see support for nocturnal storms Friday night into early
Saturday but higher probabilities could remain north and east of the
area across northeast KS. If storm coverage is lower than
anticipated, we may see highs return into the 90s once again while
mid and upper 90s could emerge over parts of south central KS until
a frontal boundary arrives late in the period. This front could
become a focus for afternoon/evening storms with some post-frontal
storms lingering Sat night across southern KS.

A stable post-frontal regime is expected to build across the
area on Sunday-Monday with dry conditions and seasonably cool
air. Highs are only expected to top out in the upper 70s and low
80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

A shortwave trough is progged to move across the area on Tuesday
bringing a chance of showers and storms to the area while seasonable
temperatures return toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected for all terminals throughout the period.
E/NE winds will prevail at all sites with the stronger winds and
gusts at KHUT and KICT falling off in the later afternoon hours.
Winds are anticipated to switch to the south tonight and become
stronger after sunrise.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...JK/RBL