943
FXUS62 KILM 040745
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
345 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly winds will bring warmer and more humid air northward,
resulting in isolated to scattered mainly afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms through at least Thursday. A cold
front could reach the Carolinas on Friday, bringing a mainly
rain-free weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warm and humid today underneath weak ridging aloft. Instability
just above the LCL could generate a few showers or
thunderstorms along the sea breeze early this afternoon. Rain
chances will gradually shift inland through the afternoon with
the sea breeze and warmer temperatures inland. Coverage will
remain isolated due to weak instability and dry air aloft.
Little relief overnight with lows in upper 60s to near 70 along
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday and Thursday still look to be the two wettest days of
the week. Not expecting a washout or rain the entire day, but
mid-level shortwave energy is more pronounced than previous
days, and in conjunction with daily sea breezes will lead to
scattered to numerous diurnal showers and thunderstorms,
especially inland. Temps will also slowly rise through the week,
reaching the low 90s Thursday with heat indices in the mid/upr
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Drier weather overall this period. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday before a cold front crosses the
area late in the day, followed by dry conditions over the
weekend as weak sfc high pressure builds in from the west along
with zonal flow aloft. Temps still slightly above normal for
early June - highs in the upr 80s/lwr 90s. Rain chances return
Monday as a broad upr-level low takes shape over the eastern
CONUS and lobes of vorticity swing around it.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect mostly VFR conditions today. A few sea breeze showers are
possible this afternoon. Inland areas previous thought to have
some chance of showers or storms appear to have a smaller chance
with this update. Can`t rule out a stray shower or storm, but
have removed VCTS from previous issuance. Winds will be light
out of the SW with afternoon gusts and southerly flow along the
sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...Isolated mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will be possible through Wednesday, becoming a
little more widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected
Friday and Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...High pressure offshore will maintain southerly
winds today and tonight. Seas around 2 feet. A few showers or
storms are possible in the offshore NC waters this evening as a
cold front north of the area stalls. S winds will increase near
the sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Wednesday through Saturday...No headlines anticipated. Sfc high
pressure remains well offshore Wednesday and Thursday leading
to southerly flow over the coastal waters, up to 15-20 kt
Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens slightly ahead of an
approaching cold front. The front crosses the area late Friday,
but with weak CAA following the front winds should be no more
than 10-15 kt into Saturday. Seas 2-4 ft through the period,
which includes a steady 1-2 ft 7-8 second SE swell component.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...21
MARINE...MAS/21