464
FXUS62 KILM 210147
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
947 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
This week will feature a warming trend. A cold front will
introduce rain chances Friday that will linger into the weekend
as it stalls to our west.

&&

.UPDATE...
Clear skies and decreasing wind speeds may allow for some fog
development inland during the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise no
changes to previous forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A ridge axis sfc-aloft, oriented SW-NE across the Carolinas today,
will transition very slowly eastward through Tuesday. Time-height
cross sections show a very dry column above 800 mb, and the low-
level moisture gets even shallower tomorrow. As a result, rain
chances will be nil, although some stratus development will be
possible late tonight. With the surface ridge remaining inland,
northeast flow will continue tonight and through most of Tuesday.
Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees below climo, however with
more sunshine on tap, and given the positive height anomalies
overhead, high temps Tuesday should reach seasonable norms of lower
to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Winds still out of the NE Tuesday night as wedge of high pressure
still sites to our north. This will bring fairly quiet weather and
seasonable temperatures. A slight retreat of this high will turn
winds more onshore and then southerly Wednesday bringing highs in
the mid to upper 80s. The continued WAA will add about 5 degrees to
Wednesday night`s lows compared to its predecessor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Humidity will be creeping up on Thursday but zonal flow just
upstream from an offshore mid level ridge should keep the area rain-
free. Changes get underway on Friday as the ridge moves farther
offshore and some vort-laden southwesterly flow impinges upon the
area from the west. This will also drive a front towards the area.
The best mid level forcing and surface boundary arrive Friday night,
which appears to offer better rain chances than Friday`s daytime
hours. The weekend forecast details are murky as the boundary likely
stalls out in the area. It`s not that any given day late in the
period looks like a washout but temperatures will hinge considerably
on the uncertain placement of the boundary. At this time it appears
that the boundary does not in fact push through and temperatures
will remain elevated above climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Northeast winds continue overnight with speeds decreasing
through the evening hours. Inland areas may see winds decouple,
allowing for some MVFR fog development around daybreak. Any
restrictions that develop in the morning will be short lived
with widespread VFR returning between 13Z-14Z. Winds will be
more easterly on Tuesday with speeds 7-10 kt and limited gust
potential.

Extended Outlook...Morning vis/cig restrictions possible each
day with showers/storms return Thursday night, otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday: Surface ridge inland is resulting in a moderate
gradient across the waters. The gradient will ease up this evening
into Tuesday as the high slowly transitions eastward, and winds will
begin to veer from NE to E by late Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday...  High pressure still nosing in
from the NE at the start of the period keeping winds NE to E and
quite light, generally capped at 10kt. A light southerly component
develops on Wednesday as the ridge axis retreats to the N. The
remainder of the period will feature a SW wind that will become more
and more typical as we head further into the warm season as the
Bermuda high establishes increasing semi-permanence.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...III
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...MBB/CRM