970
FXUS61 KILN 041738
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
138 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
South flow over the Ohio Valley will be found ahead of a cold
front that crosses late Wednesday, along with increasing
potential for showers and thunderstorms. Westerly flow behind
the front will prevail through the first half of the weekend
until a southern system interacts with a surface low near Lake
Erie on Sunday, resulting in the next significant weather
system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Southerly flow at the surface topped by southwest flow will
bring some warmer and unstable air to the CWA. Showers and some
thunderstorms are progged to move from the southwest into
Northern Kentucky and the Cincy metro area this afternoon and
early evening as mid level energy aids any thunderstorm
development here. Timing is uncertain since ongoing showers are
still relatively distant and additional convection will need to
develop before it begins in our area.

Highs will top out in the mid-upper 80s for most locations,
possibly a bit cooler in and south of metro Cincy given
increased potential for rain and cooling effect of cloud cover
ahead of it.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The loss of insolation and direct daytime heating removes any
instability in the evening with showers decreasing in coverage
and storms also decreasing in intensity. Lower end pops are
necessary overnight as models do not have a consensus on how
this time frame evolves with regards to precip chances/timing.

Later overnight closer to daybreak, more components come
together to make showers and some thunderstorms work in from the
west. Afternoon instability is expected to be found closer to
northern/northeast CWA with mid level CAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg, interacting with a high moisture low level
environment and enough shear to see any individual cells that
develop maintain themselves for a longer period of time. These
showers and thunderstorms will become prevalent in the late
morning and afternoon.

Overnight lows in the upper 60s with moist air on southerly wind
and passing cloud cover. Wednesday`s highs will be muted given
the prevailing rainfall and be within a degree or two of 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mid level shortwave and associated cold front to pivot east
thru the region Wednesday evening. Warm and moist airmass ahead
of this front will support the development of with moderate
instability. This instability combined with deep layer shear
around 30 kts has the potential to support a few strong to
severe storms into the early evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat. As the front shifts to the east the potential
for precipitation will come to a temporary end.

Elongated mid level low to settle into the Great Lakes for the
end of the week. Have slight chance to chance pops Thursday and
Friday mainly across the northeast. Some model solution spread
is seen in the exact details but a little better consensus is
observed with energy swinging back westward as the low settles a
little south into the region this weekend into early next week.
Have slight chance for pcpn Saturday with a better chance
Sunday into Monday. Precipitation chances will need to be
increased Monday if the current trends continue with future
runs.

Temperatures will be near normal Thursday with highs in the
upper 70s to the lower 80s. Readings look to trend below normal
by Friday with highs ranging from the lower 70s to the mid 70s
and then near normal Saturday and Sunday when readings are
expected to top out between 75 and 80.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Aviation will be affected by low pressure and associated
moisture and convection. SHRA already popping up early this
afternoon may begin to impact CVG ILN and LUK. CVG and LUK could
experience TSRA that briefly reduce visibilities. A couple more
waves of SHRA could occur at all sites during the overnight
hours as forcing increases non-diurnally ahead of the
approaching low. MVFR to IFR ceilings are forecast as the lower
levels of the atmosphere near saturation. BR may reduce
visibility to IFR at LUK.

More SHRA and possibly TSRA are expected on Wednesday as the
low and a cold front move in. The SHRA along with VCTS could
prevail for a few hours in a concentrated band of lift and
moisture surrounding the front. Surface winds should gust over
20 knots outside of thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Franks
NEAR TERM...Coniglio/Franks
SHORT TERM...Franks
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...Coniglio