Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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391 FXUS61 KILN 040821 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 421 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... South flow over the Ohio Valley will be found ahead of a cold front that crosses late Wednesday, along with increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms. Westerly flow behind the front will prevail through the first half of the weekend until a southern system interacts with a surface low near Lake Erie on Sunday, resulting in the next significant weather system. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/... Southerly flow at the surface topped by southwest flow above it will bring some warmer and potentially unstable air to the CWA. Showers and some thunderstorms are progged to move from the southwest into the Cincy metro area this afternoon and early evening as mid level energy aids any thunderstorm development here. Highs will top out in the mid-upper 80s for most locations, possibly a bit cooler in and south of metro Cincy given increased potential for rain and cooling effect of cloud cover ahead of it. && .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... The loss of insolation and direct daytime heating removes any instability in the evening with showers decreasing in coverage and storms also decreasing in intensity. Lower end pops are necessary overnight as models do not have a consensus on how this time frame evolves with regards to precip chances/timing. Later overnight closer to daybreak, more components come together to make showers and some thunderstorms work in from the west. Afternoon instability is expected to be found closer to northern/northeast CWA with mid level CAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, interacting with a high moisture low level environment and enough shear to see any individual cells that develop maintain themselves for a longer period of time. These showers and thunderstorms will become prevalent in the late morning and afternoon. Overnight lows in the upper 60s with moist air on southerly wind and passing cloud cover. Wednesday`s highs will be muted given the prevailing rainfall and be within a degree or two of 80. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Mid level shortwave and associated cold front to pivot east thru the region Wednesday evening. Warm and moist airmass ahead of this front will support the development of with moderate instability. This instability combined with deep layer shear around 30 kts has the potential to support a few strong to severe storms into the early evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. As the front shifts to the east the potential for precipitation will come to a temporary end. Elongated mid level low to settle into the Great Lakes for the end of the week. Have slight chance to chance pops Thursday and Friday mainly across the northeast. Some model solution spread is seen in the exact details but a little better consensus is observed with energy swinging back westward as the low settles a little south into the region this weekend into early next week. Have slight chance for pcpn Saturday with a better chance Sunday into Monday. Precipitation chances will need to be increased Monday if the current trends continue with future runs. Temperatures will be near normal Thursday with highs in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. Readings look to trend below normal by Friday with highs ranging from the lower 70s to the mid 70s and then near normal Saturday and Sunday when readings are expected to top out between 75 and 80. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions will be found through the morning hours, with a light rain or scattered showers working in from the southwest towards 18Z at CVG/LUK. The lighter precip is noted to be falling from an AS deck, with a bit of a higher precip rate noted from 21Z-00Z where a vsby restriction and lower yet still vfr cig is forecast. It`s entirely within reason that some of this rain could maintain as it moves northeast but enough of the models are quite bullish on even the occurrence of rain. Went with the drier forecast and kept a generally higher AS deck as prevailing sky. South winds will pick up a little during the afternoon and generally remain from that direction through the forecast. Afternoon winds should remain under 10kt, but a few intermittent obs could push 12kt, particularly under any showers falling from the mid deck that very well get entrained by the drier air it would be falling through. Not saying it`s out of the realm, but tstorm activity at the tail end of the CVG period was removed given few deterministic models were painting any precip at this time. MOS guidance were suggesting low cigs at CVG beginning a little before daybreak Wednesday. A lot will be determined as the day progresses with regards to occurrence/placement of showers and potential of more overnight. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Wednesday with IFR ceilings possible. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Franks NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...Franks LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...Franks