974
FXUS61 KILN 060157
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
957 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms tonight. High
pressure will provide drier weather on Thursday and Friday. The
threat for showers and thunderstorms returns during the weekend
when a couple of disturbances are forecast to travel across the
Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The evening continues to be active as showers and storms move
through the ILN CWA ahead of the cold front (still currently
stretching through central Indiana). High PWATS (1.75 in
recorded on the evening sounding from ILN... well above the 90th
percentile) have precluded some soaking thunderstorms. Handful
of flood products are still out as of this writing, and
anticipate flooding concerns to continue into the overnight
hours. Additionally, any residual storms continuing through the
area will likely be sub-severe, but may be end up falling into
SPS criteria for some stronger winds.

After the front moves through, the area dries out and clouds
become more scattered in nature. Winds shift to out of the west.

Previous discussion--> Showers and thunderstorms have been
developing ahead of a cold front situated over Indiana. These
lines and cells have less coverage than expected, though
coverage should increase as the front reaches the unstable air
in place here. With the front moving through this evening, still
going with likely to categorical pops. Severe threat appears
diminished due to lack of organization into stronger cells and
lines of storms. Isolated heavy downpours may be observed from
an environment containing 1.6 inches PWAT and favorable warm
cloud depth. Drier air working in behind the front should bring
an end to precip later tonight. Lows are forecast to range from
the low 60s in the west to the upper 60s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Cold front will be east, while high pressure settles to the
west. This will leave ILN in a weakly cyclonic flow between the
two systems. Due to a general lack of moisture and shallow, weak
instability, it appears we will observe dry weather Thursday and
Thursday night.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Thursday with highs in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Additional cold advection and
radiational cooling will allow lows in the mid and upper 50s
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level disturbances will keep some precipitation chances around
at times from Friday through Monday.  There is a limited amount of
moisture and therefore do not have overly high precipitation
chances.  Dry conditions are then expected for Tuesday through
Wednesday.

Breezy conditions will be present for the weekend Friday through
Sunday, especially during the daytime hours with wind gusts around
30 to 35 mph at times.

There will be plenty of 70s for high temperatures in the extended.
with a few 60s will be possible Friday and 80s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A line of thunderstorms ahead of the cold front passage is
moving into west central Ohio right now and will soon be
impacting the westernmost TAF sites before working east. For
now, just have brief VSBY reductions with these storms. CIGs
lower to MVFR for TAF sites in central Ohio during the overnight
hours. Overnight winds remain out of the southwest, around 5-10
knots (stronger gusts possible with storms).

Storms move out of the area after midnight and the region dries
out. Winds shift to out of the west with the cold front passage
and the area will improve to VFR conditions. Some hints of
patchy fog during early hours on Thursday but, for now, did not
include in TAFs given elevated winds and persistent cloud cover.

Low clouds scatter out on Thursday, with breezy conditions;
winds will be out of the west around 10-15 knots with gusts up
to 25 knots. Winds decrease around sunset Thursday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night and Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Coniglio
NEAR TERM...CA/Coniglio
SHORT TERM...Coniglio
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CA