947
FXUS63 KILX 132023
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of unseasonably hot weather will continue
  through next week. Temperatures will range from the middle 80s
  to middle 90s, with the heat really ramping up Sunday into early
  next week as heat indices approach 100.

- Storm chances (60-80%) return this evening and tonight.
  Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible with the
  primary hazards being damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph,
  large hail up to baseball size, and heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Severe convection is still expected this evening and into tonight
across parts of the area. Large hail and damaging winds are still
expected with these storms as CAM models have been forecasting
since last night. Storms should develop north and west of the CWA
and then move into the CWA in the next several hours, thinking as
early as 5-6pm. Models do have convection diminishing as it moves
east and southeast, but some concern that the models are not
picking up on the cold pool that is expected to develop as the MCS
develops and then move east to southeast through the evening. The
front, along with the convection will move through the CWA tonight
and should be east and southeast of the area after midnight.
Tomorrow should be clear skies, well behind the front with lighter
winds as high pressure builds into the upper midwest. These
lighter winds and slightly cooler conditions will continue into
tomorrow night.

Auten

.LONG TERM...  (Saturday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The main focus in the extended is the heat. Though temps will
still be on the warm side Sat, dwpts will be cool enough that
heat indicies will not be an issue. However, temps and dwpts will
increase starting on Sunday and continue into the middle of next
week. This will push HIs into the 100-105 range for those three
days. Any heat headlines will be considered later as there could
be some changes based on forecasted cloud cover. Precip chances
through the extended period will not be that high but some slight
chances do show up in some periods.




Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions will prevail most of the TAF period for all TAF
sites except when thunderstorms will be on/around the sites.
Scattered clouds expected initially until convection arrives to
each site. Storms could contain strong winds, so in the TEMPO
group of continued the mention of variable winds with gusts as
high as 35-40kts. Have a 4hr tempo group at PIA and BMI, with 3hrs
at SPI, DEC, CMI, as storms might be weakening some as they get to
those three sites. Will also have MVFR cigs around 2.5kft with
stronger storms in the TEMPO group. Overnight will be cloudy at
all sites and skies should clear during the early morning hours.
Winds will be out of the southwest with gusts around 20kts this
afternoon. After the front moves through, winds will become north-
northwest and be less than 10kts. Light winds expected tomorrow
morning.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$