335
FXUS63 KILX 131041
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
541 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A prolonged period of unseasonably hot weather will continue
  through next week. Temperatures will range from the middle 80s
  to middle 90s, with the heat really ramping up Sunday into early
  next week as heat indices approach 100.

- Storm chances (50-80%) return late this afternoon into tonight.
  Scattered to numerous severe storms are possible with the
  primary hazards being damaging wind gusts in excess of 75 mph,
  large hail up to baseball size, and heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 541 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

There is a small chance for a stray shower or storm west of the
Illinois River this morning. Southwest winds become breezy later
this morning with occasional gusts to 20 kts through the afternoon.
A cold front will work through the area tonight, bringing a 60-80%
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is high that
thunderstorms will occur at or near all terminals, but timing is
still a little uncertain. Because of this, a rather broad window
for storms is mentioned with PROB30 groups for worsened conditions
between 00-06Z. Winds shift to the north behind the front with
speeds below 10 kts overnight.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Mid-level clouds will be on the rise overnight as a decaying
cluster of showers moves into western Illinois. While we have
added VCSH to the KPIA terminal around 12z, confidence in rain
reaching KSPI/KBMI is considerably lower. Despite the clouds and
rain, VFR conditions are anticipated through Thursday afternoon.

Attention then turns to Thursday evening as an organized line of
showers and thunderstorms develops across portions of southeast
Iowa and northern Illinois, gradually spreading southward into
central Illinois prior to 00z. Enough signal exists within
forecast models to introduce high confidence -TSRA across the
regional terminals with this TAF cycle.


MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$