Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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482 FXUS63 KIWX 171827 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 227 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog is possible tonight and a few locations could see locally dense fog. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon with some locally heavy downpours possible. - Warm conditions for this weekend into Tuesday. Highs Sunday through Tuesday into the lower to middle 80s. - A potential for more organized storms with some strong/severe potential late Tuesday and Tuesday night, but still low confidence on timing and extent of severe threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Still with some moisture around south of US-24 and lingering forcing around may allow a shower or storm this afternoon before dissipation occurs with the diurnal curve. With winds dying off, clouds clearing out, and winds going light to calm, can see another instance of fog formation taking place tonight into Saturday morning. The moisture axis pulls farther away from the area for Saturday afternoon causing dew points to struggle to reach 60F degrees and making shower and storm chances a little more difficult especially with surface high pressure and mid level ridging beginning to build into the west. Some convergence from a slowed up baroclinic boundary to our west or a lake breeze may make a shower or storm possible there, thinking the chances will be lesser than today and yesterday. A similar day to today and Saturday will be in store for Sunday with more pop showers and possible especially during the afternoon. Minimal forcing is available aside from any lake breeze that forms, but the instability is much higher on Sunday than Saturday and today. Shear is still non-existent through all 3 of these afternoon chances limiting the extent of severe weather expected. DCAPE is much higher on Sunday, though, so if a storm can form on Sunday, there is a potential for downdrafts within those storms. A warming trend is expected for highs and lows over the next couple of days making upper 70s possible for today`s highs, low 80s for Saturday, and mid 80s for Sunday. Surface high pressure shifts eastward, but the mid level ridging still tries to hang behind overhead. Meanwhile trough builds in to our west in the Western CONUS allowing waves of vorticity to pass by to our west and north. Their close enough in proximity to not completely rule out a shower or storm in our Lake MI-adjacent counties with the greatest chances occuring Monday night. This is as the low level jet finally builds into our west. There appears to be a break in forcing that may keep organized storm activity at bay Tuesday before a low pressure system sliding through the Western Great Lakes region pushes its cold front through the area in conjunction with some mid level vorticity Tuesday night. Some shear may be available with this so could see some stronger storms around. DCAPE reaches 900 J/kg during the daytime Tuesday, but may be on the decline before the shear arrives Tuesday night. So any pop storm Tuesday could tap into that making a downburst possible then. Mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km also look to eject towards the area from the Plains and provided that airmass isn`t modified by the time it arrives, large hail could be a hazard in addition to damaging wind gusts as that cold front moves through. Recent model runs have been slowing down the FROPA for early/mid next week, but am still holding out some hope of a drier Wednesday with the ECMWF showing the moisture axis/cold front shifting out of the area by midday Wednesday. Meanwhile, the GFS holds the baroclinic boundary/cold front back, allowing a wave of low pressure to form along it keeping weather active on Wednesday instead. Will still have chance PoPs for Wednesday to cover the GFS`s solution. Have more confidence of a dry Thursday with both models bringing the front through by Thursday morning providing surface high pressure. This would allow highs to trend back toward the mid to upper 70s for the mid to late week period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1233 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Lingering MVFR to low VFR stratocu should mix out to all VFR by or shortly after issuance. CU may become agitated enough to generate isolated convection mid afternoon through early evening given growing buoyancy near a lake breeze and washed out frontal boundary. Point chances are low (20%), so opted not to include a vicinity shower mention in the TAFS. Fog/stratus then once again becomes a concern early Saturday morning given ample near sfc moisture, light/variable winds, and temps falling below xover values. Opted to hold with a IFR mention in the 08-13z window to account for this potential. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight to midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ Saturday night for INZ005- 012>015-022-023-103-104-116-203-204-216. OH...None. MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Saturday night for MIZ078-177-277. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Roller AVIATION...Steinwedel