Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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927 FXUS64 KJAN 121733 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 945 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Forecast remains on track and no adjustments were made.GOES-16 visible imagery has a few upper/mid-lvl clouds over the area but the clouds are expected to dissipate throughout the day. Surface ridging over the region will filter in dryer air and keep afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 80s. /SW/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Today and tonight...Surface high pressure ridging and dry northeasterly flow will prevail across the ArkLaMs today and tonight. Highs today will mostly be in the mid to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 60s./15/ Thursday through mid next week... Dry conditions will persist through the remainder of this week into the weekend under the influence of high pressure. Given this dry air in place, deep boundary layer mixing will likely lead to very warm temperatures, mid to upper 90s. By Saturday, high pressure over Texas moves overhead and 850/925 temps around 20/26 should yield widespread surface temperatures in the upper 90s, with some 100s possible as well. Conditions are being monitored and a heat advisory may eventually be needed. However, I hesitate to say this for Saturday as dry dewpoints will tend to mitigate heat threat a bit, despite the higher temperatures. This may change Sunday however with greater moisture, less mixing. Despite the slightly cooler temps Sunday, heat indices could be higher. By Sunday, high pressure shifts east and will start to wrap moisture back in. Given this, upper 90s near 100 temps will be confined to northern areas where drier air is in place and better mixing is likely. Further south across the Pine Belt, rain and storms will be possible in the presence of better moisture as a wave pushes across. This sets us up for a wetter week next week with greater moisture in its wake. Next week, high pressure shifts over the east CONUS resulting in deep southerly flow over our area, providing a steady stream of Gulf moisture. Tropical like moisture is possible with PWAT around 2.5 inches. With such moisture, heavy rain rates will be possible so flash flooding could be possible if trends hold./SAS/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. /SW/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 63 90 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 63 94 67 98 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 62 90 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 66 94 71 98 / 0 10 0 10 Natchez 63 89 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 63 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 62 92 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/SAS20/SW