Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
648 FXUS62 KKEY 021850 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 How does that poem verse go; showers, showers, everywhere, nor any drops to fall? It sure feels like we have had all these showers dancing around the island chain but hardly any of them have moved ashore. With that said, portions of the Upper Keys have seen showers on occasion and the Lower Keys, especially Key West, saw some showers. Rainfall estimates range from a trace to just over an inch and a half. Thus far, however, much of the activity has stayed across our coastal waters north of the Lower and Middle Keys and adjacent to the Upper Keys. Meanwhile, the lack of appreciable precipitation has allowed temperatures to climb to near 90 and even a few isolated communities have hit the lower 90s. Dew points are not helping as current values are in the mid 70s. There is at least somewhat of a breeze to help but emphasis on little relief. .FORECAST... A surface high pressure just off the Carolina coast will slide east tonight into Monday. Meanwhile, a low level ridge will remain relatively in place across the western Atlantic, placing the Florida Keys along the southwestern periphery. This will maintain generally an easterly flow across the area through the next 7 days. This will help to keep precipitable water values near or just below the mean which is around 1.8 inches. This means we`re not expecting an real additional influx of moisture despite a prolonged easterly fetch. At the same time, aloft, we will remain on the periphery of a longwave trough that will remain parked along the Eastern Seaboard through Monday night. Then a shortwave ridge will quickly pass through helping to nudge out the first trough only to be swiftly replaced with the next upper level trough. All in all what this means is that a somewhat volatile period is in store for the Florida Keys at least through the next 3 days. It`s hard to pinpoint which days may be more favorable for showers and thunderstorms given the less than enthusiastic synoptic forcing. This means that most of the lift to act on the moisture and instability will have to rely mainly on mesoscale forcing. This will depend on where the boundaries set up along with possible convection coming off the mainland. Beyond the short term, the patten become more questionable and we will have to wait and see how certain features wind up interacting with each other. ECMWF and GFS continue to have differing ideas on how things will go. For now confidence is low in the extended and will need to be monitored for future changes. Lastly, given the prolonged period of easterly winds, temperatures will not deviate from near 90 degrees during the day and lower 80s overnight with humid and muggy conditions persisting. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 High pressure just off the Carolina coast will weaken as it lengthens eastward into the Atlantic over the next few days. As a result mostly easterly breezes will range gentle to moderate, peaking in the afternoon and evenings and lulling overnight into the morning hours. Above normal rain and thunder chances will persist through at least Monday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 VFR conditions are generally expected at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. A higher than normal rain chance for this forecast period has resulted in a VCSH mention in both TAFs, currently set to end around 00z based on CAMs runs but this may need to be amended as showers continue to develop. Developing convection will be pulsey and widely scattered resulting in large uncertainty in exact location and timing. Amendments will be used to describe short term sub-VFR conditions with showers and storms passing directly over terminals. Near surface winds will be out of the east and briefly increase to 10 to 15 knots and some higher gusts this evening before slackening overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 90 82 90 / 50 50 40 30 Marathon 82 90 82 90 / 50 50 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest