444
FXUS62 KKEY 010847
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
447 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Currently - A surface high centered over the Mid-Atlantic is
driving fresh easterly breezes across the Keys. As a result, for
the first time in what seems like forever, robust easterly has
spread across the Keys. Winds along the reef are gusting to 20 to
25 knots. Dry air and short wave ridging has kept largely stable
conditions across the area and shower activity has been quite
limited through the night. The healthy flow has given the Keys an
infusion of modified continental air. As a result, temperatures
are in the lower 80s with dew points broadly near 70.

Forecast - The previously mentioned high cell will continue to
drive southeastward into the Atlantic over the next couple of
days. As a result, initially fresh easterly breezes today will
gradually relax through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week. Another day or so of mild conditions will
continue due to state of the modified continental air. Rain
chances, however, will begin trending upwards. This will be due to
the shortwave ridging aloft moving through and weakening as it
gives way to incoming southern stream troughing. While island
cloud lines are possible today, conditions will be quite a bit
more favorable on Sunday.

The high cell that moved off the Atlantic coast will weaken as it
elongates out into the Atlantic early next week. As a result,
surface winds will relax. The lengthening and warming maritime
streamlines will result in further moderation of the incoming air.
As a result, expect temperatures to nudge upwards closer to 90
while dew points creep back into the mid 70s. Meanwhile,
mid level troughing is expected to persist, despite the upper
level flow becoming zonal. The combination of the above justifies
holding at least chance pops.

Uncertainty ramps up from mid week and beyond. Guidance has been
suggesting that a nearly cut off southern stream shortwave trough
will roll across the Gulf of Mexico, on its way across Florida.
This would normally spell higher rain chances. However, the
region with the best lower level moisture is expected to remain
well to our southeast. This will be in response to a new high
cell advancing southeastward off the Atlantic coast. In addition,
as the ridge slips down the Florida peninsula, the steering flow
and low level forcing will weaken. For now, guidance is middling
regarding rain chances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic will roll southeastward off
the coast over the next couple of days then push eastward into the
Atlantic. As a result, moderate to fresh easterly breezes will
gradually trend downwards. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
required, at least initially, as winds remain up. Moderate ridging
will remain stretched across the southeast and Florida through the
first half of the week. This will keep breezes light and broadly
out of the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Breezy, VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through the
upcoming TAF period. Near surface easterly winds will stabilize
between 10 and 15 knots with occasional gusts near 20 knots. Hi-
res models suggest potential shower development near noon near EYW
and MTH, prompting VCSH in the TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in day in Keys Weather History, the daily record low
of 65F was measured at Marathon in 1955. This measurement tied for
the coldest temperature ever recorded in the month of June.
Temperature records at Marathon date back to 1951.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest