Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
101 FXUS62 KKEY 041856 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 256 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The cloudline this afternoon over the Lower Keys finally activated just after 1 PM and produced a few showers mainly west of Boca Chica Key. Elsewhere, showers have continued to wax and wane across the outer Gulf and distant Straits of Florida waters. Recently, winds have shifted to the east and southeast, which has pushed the cloudline offshore and north of the Lower Keys. Lastly temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. .FORECAST... Weak low level ridging will remain in play through the next several days. This will keep the steering flow on the weaker side and allow for moisture to pool in the lowest levels. That being said, the mid levels (700-500 mb) will remain relatively dry and the two will seemingly clash throughout the short term. Therefore, rain chances will be highly mesoscale driven and will be kept at 20-30 percent through the end of the week. Likewise, winds will undulate, tending to peak in the afternoon and evening hours and then lull overnight through the early morning hours. Towards the end of the week, a new far-reaching trough will slide across the eastern third of the U.S. This trough will be composed of two vort lobes with the secondary lobe one settling into the southeast U.S. This will push the ridge southward, resulting in winds going light and variable. Despite the upper level trough and associated vort lobe will draw closer to the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys will be at the periphery of any synoptic lift. In addition, this trough will not be able to tap into the rich moisture that resides across the western Caribbean. By Sunday this trough will get kicked out by the next shortwave ridge, which will then get quickly replaced with a new trough. It`s this new trough that is causing confidence issues going into next week. Both models agree that this trough will finally be able to pull the moisture out from the western Caribbean, however, they differ on how fast this occurs and how organized the convection may be. Therefore, have begun the trend upwards for next week as the pattern does look wetter. The air mass will not be changing all that much. Dew points will very slowly climb through the next 7 days and there may be some heat-related issues going into next week. Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An Atlantic pressure ridge will extend westward across the southeastern United States over the next couple of days. As a result, gentle to moderate easterly breezes will persist, peaking during the afternoon and evening hours. Thereafter, the ridge will shift southward across Florida, resulting in slackening and, at times, variable breezes. The next upper level trough moves in starting Sunday will southerly breezes gradually freshening. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. With a cloudline present including some light rain, a TEMPO has been added until this evening when the cloudline should break apart. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 89 82 90 / 30 10 30 20 Marathon 82 89 83 90 / 30 20 30 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest