Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
922 FXUS63 KLBF 072334 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is an enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms mainly through mid evening across portions of north central into central Nebraska. Large hail and damaging winds are expected with an isolated tornado or two possible. - Cooler highs in the upper 60s to 70s Saturday through Monday, with chances for showers and a few thunderstorms. The greatest threat is over the western half of the forecast area. - Drier weather with much warmer temperatures developing Tuesday into Wednesday and persisting through Friday. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 H5 analysis this morning had an upper level high over western Texas/southeastern New Mexico. An elongated area of low pressure extended from central Saskatchewan east southeast into southeastern Ontario. For the northern half of the CONUS, from the pacific NW into the Dakotas, broad east to west flow was noted. Within this flow, a shortwave was noted over southwestern Wyoming this morning with a second shortwave noted over northern portions of the central valley of California. Other disturbances were noted on the southern periphery of the Saskatchewan low and extended from southeastern British Columbia into southern portions of Saskatchewan. At the surface this afternoon, a warm front extended from just north of Thedford, ease southeast to just south of Ord Nebraska. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the area and 2 pm CDT temperatures ranged from 73 at Valentine, to 93 at Ogallala. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Severe potential this evening will be the main forecast concern in the short term period. Thunderstorm initiation is expected to take place around 20z this afternoon. As for location of initiation, looking at the latest NAM Nest, 13z HRRR and 12z WRF-ARW storm initiation ranges from Keya Paha County (NAM Nest), to Brown and Rock counties (HRRR and WRF). The model solns this morning lift the warm front up to as far north as the SD/NE border by mid afternoon. This may be over done given the ongoing convection over northern Nebraska and will need to be ascertained near forecast issuance time. Believe initiation will take place along this frontal boundary and this lies the highest potential for tornadoes. As we progress into the latter afternoon and early evening hours, super cell thunderstorms will track to the southeast, eventually exiting the area by mid evening. Support for supercell thunderstorms lie with deep layer shear on the order of 40 to 55 KTS this afternoon early evening. Low level moisture has streamed into southwestern and western Nebraska this afternoon and coupled with readings in the 80s/Lower 90s, has led to SB capes > 3000J/KG, which will be ample enough to overcome the 40+ kts of shear. Very steep mid level lapse rates and 25+KTS of shear are noted generally east of a Valentine to North Platte line which would favor very large hail as the storms migrate southeast away from the warm front. Eventually based on forecast DCAPE, supercells will congeal into a line/bowing segment. By that point, the convection should be exiting the area around the 01-02z time frame. Additional convection may develop over the Cheyenne Ridge late this afternoon, early evening. This activity may eventually make it into the southwestern forecast area later this evening. ATTM, this activity is not expected to be severe. Regardless, will introduce some low pops in the SW to account for this threat overnight. Overnight, surface high pressure will build into South Dakota forcing a pseudo- backdoor cold front through the forecast area. By Saturday, this feature will be oriented along the front ranges of southeastern Wyoming/Colorado, south into the Oklahoma Panhandle and east along the OK/KS border. Low level easterlies, anticipated cloud cover and h85 temps in the lower teens are noted across the area on Saturday and highs will struggle to get out of the lower 70s. There will be a continued threat for precipitation Saturday, as showers and thunderstorms develop off to the west and gradually lift east into western portions of the forecast area. As for the severe threat, it appears to be well off to the west and south of the forecast area INVOF the backdoor cold front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Surface high pressure will remain anchored over the Missouri Valley Sunday into Monday. This will lead to a continuation of easterly/southeasterly winds with a frontal boundary anchored off to the west of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will remain highest in the western forecast area as convection drifts east off the higher terrain of eastern Wyoming/NE Colorado. Highs Sunday and Monday will struggle to get out of the lower 70s both days which is 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. A second cold front will push through the area Monday night into early Tuesday with a decent threat for showers and thunderstorms. This will be followed by a general warming trend for Wednesday through Friday with a more limited threat for precipitation. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A line of thunderstorms passed through western and north central Nebraska this afternoon along a strong low pressure system and associated boundaries. Winds will remain gusty through the evening hours, before boundary layer decoupling settles in and calms surface winds. A stratus deck is expected overnight, which will lower ceilings. The main challenge for the TAF period will be the ceilings, as there may be brief drops to MVFR and IFR conditions. There may be some brief showers through the TAF period, though confidence is low in timing and placement, so will omit from TAFs at this time. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Buttler SHORT TERM...Buttler LONG TERM...Buttler AVIATION...Richie