725
FXUS63 KLBF 111718
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1218 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot weather is likely Wednesday but this heat wave will be
  short lived. A cold front will sweep through wrn and ncntl
  Nebraska Wednesday night.

- Severe weather concerns are limited to ncntl Nebraska late
  tonight and early Wednesday morning. Large hail is the concern
  and storm coverage is expected to remain isolated.

- A subtropical upper level low off the coast of Baja Mexico
  will circulate through the central Plains Friday and Saturday.
  The models suggest this system could be an excellent rain
  producer and WPC has highlighted parts of swrn and ncntl
  Nebraska for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An upper low circulating through srn Manitoba will send a weak cold
front through wrn and ncntl Nebraska today. Temperatures aloft will
remain cool, near 0C at h700mb, and the temperature forecast leans
on the short term model blend and the NBM 50th. The same strategy is
in place Wednesday when highs will rise well into the 90s.
Temperatures at the h700mb level warm to around 14C which should
easily support highs in the 90s. Full sun conditions are likely
Wednesday with strong warm air advection aimed at SD.

For today, the cool air aloft and lingering moisture at h850-700mb-
50-60 percent RH should produce afternoon cumulus. The RAP model is
suggesting an isolated afternoon thunderstorm chance. The focus is
return moisture along the Cheyenne divide in Nebraska. POPs are
limited to 20 percent as the model is a minority solution. The NAM
is stronger with the front and slower with the moisture return.

A warm front lifting through wrn and ncntl Nebraska tonight and
Wednesday morning may set off isolated showers and thunderstorms
across ncntl Nebraska. The NAM and RAP are the only models showing
this feature and POPs are limited to 20 percent for this reason. The
SPC day2 outlook holds onto a marginal severe weather risk across
ncntl Nebraska and this is probably warranted given the strong WAA
and strong winds aloft. Large hail is concern.

The focus for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon is a sfc trof
and the models are in good agreement showing this feature east of
ncntl Nebraska. There are no POPs in the forecast Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

In the wake of the system Wednesday, a more vigorous cold front
will drop through Nebraska and settle across KS Thursday. The
NAM suggests moisture return across the high Plains and a surge
of warm air advection through WY during the afternoon. There is
also an increase in winds aloft at h300mb reaching speeds near
50kts. The combination of increasing winds aloft, a "hot prod"
across WY and moisture advection could support an isolated
thunderstorm concern across wrn Nebraska as indicated by the
NAM.

Attention is drawn to a subtropical upper level low off the coast of
Baja Mexico. The models are in good agreement circulating this low
through the central Plains Friday and Saturday. The models suggest
this system could be an excellent rain producer across Nebraska with
PWAT in the GFS and ECM 1.50 inches or higher. The focus for rain
will be the aforementioned cold front across KS lifting north as a
warm front.

The storm mode remains uncertain except to say storms will be the
heavy precipitation type. A belt of stronger winds should develop at
some point as the low moves through which could support severe
storms during the afternoon or evening if the timing is right. The
timing of the arrival of these winds is uncertain. The GFS soundings
also show a warm nose or midlevel inversion at h800-700mb which
could inhibit storm coverage and indeed, the ECM shows sporadic
storm coverage. Nonetheless, WPC has highlighted parts of swrn and
ncntl Nebraska for marginal excessive rainfall Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through tomorrow afternoon
across western and north central Nebraska. Cumulus development
will persist this afternoon as well, though CIGs will remain
well into VFR. Variable winds early this afternoon become
southerly into this evening, at around 5 to 15kts.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Record Highs for LBF CWA Climate Sites:

               Wed 06/12   Thu 06/13   Fri 06/14
North Platte   102 (1952)  108 (2022)  101 (1952)
Valentine      104 (1952)  103 (1956)  105 (1979)
Broken Bow     101 (1952)  103 (2022)  101 (1952)
Imperial       104 (1952)  106 (2022)  108 (2006)

At this time, no records are projected to be broken.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Brown
CLIMATE...NMJ